Texas Primaries Mark Start of US Midterm Election Campaign
The campaign leading to the US midterm elections, which will determine control of both chambers of Congress during the latter half of Donald Trump's presidency, officially began as voters in several states cast ballots on Tuesday to select Democratic and Republican candidates for the November general election.
Among the contests, Texas drew significant attention due to its competitive primary races for a US Senate seat. The outcomes in this southern state may provide insight into the trajectories of the two major American political parties in the upcoming election season.
On the Democratic side, state representative James Talarico defeated Dallas-based US Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett, securing the nomination to advance to the general election. The Republican primary did not yield a decisive winner, as Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and incumbent US Senator John Cornyn each received less than 50% of the vote. Consequently, they will face off in a run-off election scheduled for 26 May.
Below are five key takeaways from the Texas voting, which represents only the beginning of an extended primary season across the United States.
Democrats Choose a Broad-Appeal Candidate
The Democratic primary for the US Senate nomination highlighted contrasting approaches. Jasmine Crockett, known for her frequent appearances on liberal media outlets, had developed a national reputation as a combative partisan unafraid to challenge Republicans and the Trump administration.
"I went with Crockett solely because I believe she really has what it takes to fight for what we what I think we need as a community," said Vananh Tran, who voted Tuesday at a precinct in central Dallas.
James Talarico, the victor, holds a Master of Divinity degree from a Christian seminary and presented a more conciliatory style. While sharing many liberal positions with Crockett, he emphasized reaching across the aisle to disaffected Republicans and reclaiming religious values from the evangelical right.
"I really like his ability to reach across the aisle and make people on the other side hear him and recognise what he's saying," said Andrew Sterling, a Talarico supporter.
Crockett performed strongly in Texas's major metropolitan areas, including her home city of Dallas and Houston, as well as in the eastern part of the state, which has a large Black population. In contrast, Talarico won in suburbs with affluent white liberals and regions with significant Hispanic populations, such as San Antonio and the Rio Grande Valley along the US-Mexico border.
Many Democratic voters interviewed by the BBC expressed support for both candidates and indicated they would back whoever won the nomination. Such unity will be essential for Democrats aiming for success in November.
Cornyn Survives to Contest Run-Off
John Cornyn, who has served as a US Senator since 2002, has typically secured re-election with ease. However, this year presented a more challenging scenario.
Polling consistently showed Cornyn trailing Ken Paxton despite Cornyn outspending Paxton on television advertising by over $70 million (£52 million), setting a record for the most expensive Senate primary race. The Texas media was saturated with Cornyn-backed ads highlighting Paxton's past controversies.
Paxton's record includes a 2023 impeachment by the Texas legislature on charges of fraud and obstruction of justice, though he was acquitted in a state Senate trial. Recently, his wife filed for divorce amid allegations of multiple affairs.
Despite these issues, Paxton portrayed Cornyn as old and disconnected from Texans, insufficiently supportive of Trump, backing gun-control measures unpopular among Texas conservatives, and failing to adequately reduce government spending.
The race seemed poised to be another example of an establishment politician challenged by a right-wing insurgent.
However, on Tuesday, Cornyn demonstrated unexpected resilience. He finished nearly tied with Paxton but did not secure the 50% threshold needed to avoid a run-off election in May.
"Judgement day is coming for Ken Paxton," Cornyn stated at a press conference following the release of election results.
This statement may be optimistic, as Texas Republican run-off voters tend to be more conservative and anti-establishment. Nonetheless, the result sets the stage for an intense and costly three-month campaign.
"We are not going to go quietly," Paxton declared in his election night speech, addressing Cornyn directly: "And we are not going to let you buy this seat."
Voting Challenges on Election Day
Tuesday's primaries served as an initial test of US voting systems this year, with mixed outcomes.
Republican-backed changes to the primary process in Dallas County, which has 2.7 million residents, required voters to cast ballots at precincts determined by their home addresses. Previously, voters could use any vote center in the county.
Following requests from local Democratic Party officials, a judge ordered all county polling locations to remain open for two extra hours on Tuesday evening, citing "mass confusion" among voters regarding proper polling locations. The confusion was so severe that the county election website crashed due to heavy traffic.
Later that evening, the Texas Supreme Court issued a ruling suspending the lower court's order and mandated that ballots cast after the scheduled closing time be counted separately.
Shortly after the court's announcement, Crockett spoke at her election party, alleging that voters in Dallas were being disenfranchised.
"Unfortunately this is what Republicans like to do," she said. "They specifically targeted Dallas County, and I think we know why."
Outside a polling station on Tuesday afternoon, Lela Bodley told the BBC that she and her mother had visited two polling places only to be turned away. While Bodley was able to vote at a third location, her mother was still trying to determine her correct polling place.
"Whatever this new change they did to jurisdictions and voting here and voting there, it's a mess," she said.
Early Voting Indicates Energized Democratic Base
It has been 32 years since a Democrat won a statewide election in Texas. Although Beto O'Rourke's 2018 Senate campaign came within 215,000 votes of defeating Senator Ted Cruz in an election with over eight million ballots cast, the Democratic Party has faced a long series of losses.
However, signs suggest heightened Democratic engagement in this year's campaign. For the first time since 2020, more Democrats than Republicans cast early ballots in a March primary, including 400,000 voters participating in a Democratic primary for the first time.
Democratic strategists and politicians have long anticipated Texas becoming a political battleground but have often been disappointed. This time, they believe factors such as an unpopular president, economic uncertainty, and a motivated base could shift the balance.
"The grocery bill is higher in Texas," said Brandon Chase McGee, a city councillor in Denton and former senior official in the Texas Democratic Party. "Gas isn't as cheap. We're still facing challenges to building more affordable housing for regular working people. Child care costs are high. The challenges that people are experiencing in other parts of the country, we're also getting them in Texas."
Despite these hopeful signs, Democrats face a challenging path. Trump won Texas in 2024 by 14 percentage points. Nevertheless, optimism remains strong.
Iran Conflict Not Yet a Major Issue for Texas Voters
Millions of Texans had already voted early when the US launched the first of its attacks with Israel against Iran on Saturday morning. Although the bombing campaign continues, it has not significantly influenced political dynamics in the state.
Candidates rarely mentioned the military strikes during final campaign events, and voters interviewed on election day primarily cited domestic issues, particularly the economy, as their main concerns.
"Talking to people on the ground, I'm not just hearing about Iran," said Chase McGee, the Denton city councillor. "Having said that, I don't know that we have seen the rise in gas prices yet that we are likely to see as a result of the missions going on with Iran."
While Iran is not currently a prominent issue, with voters focused on cost of living and affordability, the political impact of the conflict may emerge in the near future.
