Introduction
Good evening, and welcome to ’s live blog. The polls have just closed, and we may have to wait until around dawn (quite early in the summer, of course) until the result is announced. However, as the votes are counted, it should become clear well before then who is likely to win. Andy Burnham, the Labour former cabinet minister, current mayor of Greater Manchester, and potential future prime minister, is widely expected to become the new MP, but at this point no one knows for certain.
Here is our latest report on the events of today and what may unfold in the coming hours.
Significance of the Byelection
This byelection has been widely described as the most consequential in British history. While that may be an overstatement, it is certainly one for the history books, as it is expected to lead to the replacement of the current Prime Minister.
During the night, the result will be announced; ultimately, democratic politics is about numbers, and these numbers will be significant. In his analysis, Tim Shipman provides a detailed explanation of why this is the case.
At the time of going to print, Op Makerfield is not a totally done deal. Two of Burnham’s top team parrot the same line: ‘It’s closer than you think.’ But those advising the Manchester mayor think the scale of any win will determine the speed of events. ‘If he wins by low single digits, Keir Starmer digs in and says: “You can’t come for me until after the Manchester mayoral election on 30 July,” and it’s bloody trench warfare,’ one says. ‘If it’s a comfortable, single-digits win, the soft left will try to take power through a conversation, but they will probably discover that power has to be taken by force. If Andy gets more than Reform plus Restore combined, start the clock. There will be an avalanche.’
Uncertainty and Possible Outcomes
Voting figures are very specific, but there is much less clarity regarding what will happen next. Overnight and during Friday, a clearer picture may emerge, but it is also possible that by this time tomorrow there will still be considerable uncertainty about how a Burnham/Starmer power struggle might unfold. Pippa Crerar provided an excellent account of the current state of play in her splash this morning.
It is also possible that the incumbent could win, which would lead to significant turmoil within Labour, with fewer prospects for a positive resolution for the party.
Other Byelections and Coverage
While the focus is on Makerfield, two other byelections are taking place tonight in Aberdeen South and Arbroath and Broughty Ferry. We will be covering those as well.
At 11.10pm, the BBC will launch its byelection programme, hosted by Laura Kuenssberg. Regarding the timing of results, we have been informed that the Aberdeen South result is expected around 1.30am, Makerfield between 3am and 4am, and Arbroath and Broughty Ferry around the same time. However, these estimates are not always reliable.
Engagement and Communication
We hope to enable comments in the morning. Overnight, if you wish to highlight something urgently, it is best to use social media. You can reach me on Bluesky at @andrewsparrowgdn.bsky.social. has a presence on Bluesky, and individual journalists maintain accounts. I still have my account, and if you message me there at @AndrewSparrow, I will see it and respond if necessary.
I find it very helpful when readers point out mistakes, even minor typos. No error is too small to correct. I also find your questions very interesting. While I cannot promise to reply to all, I will try to respond to as many as possible, either below the line or sometimes in the blog.
