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One in Six Young People Could Be Without Work or Training by 2031, Report Warns

A report warns that one in six young people could be without work or training by 2031 unless urgent action is taken, highlighting systemic failures and rising youth unemployment rates.

·6 min read
Getty Images A young woman sits in the hallway of her home looking sad and lonely

Urgent Action Needed to Prevent Rise in Youth NEETs

One in six young people will not be in education, employment, or training within five years unless urgent action is taken, according to a major review.

The education, health, and welfare systems are described as "no longer fit for purpose" in preparing young people for adult life, said the report's author, former minister Alan Milburn.

"We are at risk of a lost generation," he warned, with the number of 16 to 24-year-olds out of work, education, or training projected to rise to 1.25 million by 2031.

Milburn is expected to say in a forthcoming speech that "the first rung of the career ladder has thinned" and that for "too many young people it is now simply out of reach."

"That places them in a hopeless catch-22 where employers ask for work experience but the opportunities for young people to gain it have narrowed or gone," he will state.

Concerns are growing over the number of young people not working. Latest figures indicate the unemployment rate for 16 to 24-year-olds is 16.2%, the highest since 2014, and more than three times the broader unemployment rate of 5%.

Investigation into Youth NEETs

Milburn was commissioned to investigate why so many young people are not in employment, education, or training, collectively known as NEETs.

According to the latest official UK figures, 957,000 young people were classed as NEET from October to December 2025, equivalent to one in eight of that age group.

More than half of these were not actively seeking work.

Milburn warned that without intervention, this number could increase to 1.25 million, or one in six young people, within five years.

Government Response

Work and Pensions Secretary Pat McFadden said he commissioned the report to prevent a generation of young people from facing unemployment and welcomed its findings.

"We are already taking action," he said, highlighting government plans to incentivize companies to hire young people and efforts to expand apprenticeships.

McFadden also emphasized the government's focus on early intervention measures such as special educational needs support and the removal of the two-child cap on benefits.

"But we know there is more to do," he added.

Findings from the Review

The review, led by the former Labour health secretary, has been widely anticipated. Milburn told the BBC's Laura Kuenssberg that the government spends 25 times more on benefits for young people than on supporting them into work.

In his interim report, he challenged the perception that young people do not want to work, noting that 84% of NEETs surveyed expressed a desire for a job or training.

"This is not a failure of young people. It is a failure of a system stuck in the past. Whether it is education or health or welfare, that system fails to enable their participation in the labour market," he is expected to say in his speech.
"Instead, all too often it ends up putting young people on a path to a life not in jobs but on benefits. This should be the priority for the government. It should be the priority for all of us."

Personal Stories Highlight Challenges

Zaynah, 24, has experienced physical ill health and has not held a job since leaving college. Over the past year, she has applied for more than 200 jobs but said she never received any responses from employers.

"Getting a job is very hard because with my issues, I haven't got that much experience, I've never worked before," she said.
"So I feel like it's restricting me and I'm not getting jobs." She plans to begin volunteering to improve her CV.
Spear Zaynah wearing a burgandy headscarf and black top
Zaynah says she's applied for around 200 jobs in the last year

Luke, 23, who studied product design at Central St Martin's University, has also struggled to find employment despite persistent efforts.

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He has applied for over 400 positions and had only one interview, for a cleaning job, which he did not secure.

"It's humiliating," he said. "You think 'okay I've got all the knowledge, I've got all the skills, all I'm waiting for is a job to put it in practice'.
"It makes you depressed especially the amount of rejections." He stated he had no choice but to claim benefits.

Meanwhile, Rocky was unemployed for a year before joining Nando's as a waiter. Three years later, he has progressed to assistant manager.

"I'm 23 years old and I'm a manager at Nando's," he said. "I feel happy with myself. I can look back and tell my doubters that I made it."

He credited mentoring from a Nando's manager and ongoing support from the youth charity Spear for his progress.

Spear Rocky in his Nandos uniform
Rocky is an assistant manager at Nando's

Economic and Labour Market Context

The report found that in 2024/25, for every £1 spent on employment support for young people, approximately £25 was spent on benefits.

It also noted that over the past 20 years, the number of low- and medium-skilled jobs in the UK has decreased by 1.6 million, while higher-skilled positions have increased by 6.3 million.

High street retailers and hospitality businesses, such as restaurants, cafes, and pubs, often provide many young people with their first work experience.

However, vacancies in the hospitality sector have halved in the past four years.

Lord Simon Wolfson, boss of Next, told the BBC that two years ago the retailer typically received 10 applications per shop vacancy, but this number has since risen to 19.

Industry and Political Reactions

Rain Newton-Smith, chief executive of the Confederation of British Industry, described the report as exposing "a tragic waste of potential and sets out the key problems that must be fixed."

"Reducing the high cost of creating jobs in the UK would open up more opportunities," she said.

Some employers have argued that hiring young people has become more difficult due to higher minimum wages and increased taxes, such as employer National Insurance contributions.

The government has defended its decisions to raise business taxes and increase the national minimum wage.

Last year, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer reversed welfare spending reforms intended to save £5 billion annually by 2030 after opposition from Labour MPs.

The review does not yet include potential solutions to the crisis; these will be presented in a final report at a later date.

The Conservative Party criticized Labour for focusing on internal leadership issues rather than addressing the "generational crisis" highlighted by Milburn.

Shadow Work and Pensions Secretary Helen Whately stated:

"Every policy choice Labour has made, from their jobs tax, capping apprenticeship funding, or trapping young people on welfare, has made it harder for a young person to take their first step into work.
Their only answer has been a flurry of piecemeal work programmes – an approach this report rubbishes."
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This article was sourced from bbc

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