Uncertainty Surrounds US-Iran Conflict After Three Weeks
Three weeks into the joint US-Israeli military campaign against Iran, the situation remains ambiguous with conflicting signals and uncertainty. Public statements by former President Donald Trump often appear at odds with developments on the ground.
Trump has described the war as "very complete, pretty much," yet American ground forces, including a Marine expeditionary unit, continue to deploy to the region. Although he has also claimed the conflict is "winding down," US and Israeli airstrikes targeting Iranian positions persist without interruption.
Strait of Hormuz and Military Claims
The Strait of Hormuz, a strategic chokepoint through which 20% of global oil exports pass, has been described by Trump as a "simple military manoeuvre" to reopen. However, currently only vessels approved by Iran are transiting these waters. Despite assertions that the Iranian military is "gone," drone and missile attacks continue in the area, with strikes extending as far as the joint US-UK base on Diego Garcia.
Trump’s Recent Statements and Military Objectives
On a Saturday evening post on Truth Social, Trump issued a warning of escalation, stating:
If Iran didn't "fully open, without threat" Hormuz in 48 hours, the US military would begin targeting Iranian power plants, "starting with the biggest".
The previous day, he posted a numbered list outlining American military objectives in the Iran conflict, indicating the US was "getting really close" to achieving them. This list, his most detailed since the war’s onset, included degrading or destroying Iran’s military capabilities, defense infrastructure, and nuclear weapons program, as well as protecting US allies in the region.
Notably absent from this list was any mention of securing the Strait of Hormuz, which Trump suggested should be the responsibility of other nations more dependent on Gulf oil exports. He has frequently emphasized that the US is a net energy exporter and does not rely on Middle Eastern oil, although this perspective overlooks the global nature of fossil fuel markets and their impact on domestic fuel prices.
Trump’s Truth Social post also omitted any call for regime change in Iran. Earlier references to approving the nation’s next leader or demanding "unconditional surrender," which he insisted upon in the war’s early days, have disappeared.
Potential Outcomes and Military Movements
Based on Trump’s latest objectives, it is conceivable that the US could conclude operations with Iran’s current anti-American leadership still in power, its oil exports continuing, and its influence over the Strait of Hormuz remaining intact.
If this outcome is unsatisfactory to the president and his aides—who have stated the conflict began with the 1979 Iran Revolution and would be finished accordingly—there exists an alternative involving the US ground forces en route to the Middle East.
Reports from just over a week ago indicated that a Marine expeditionary unit of approximately 2,500 combat troops, along with supporting ships and aircraft, was dispatched from Japan to the Middle East, expected to arrive imminently. Another similar-sized Marine force recently departed California, with arrival anticipated in mid-April.
Military analysts have speculated that the US might plan to seize Kharg Island, a 3-square-kilometer (8-square-mile) territory housing Iran’s primary oil export terminal. Capturing this island could theoretically halt Iran’s oil shipments, cutting off vital revenue and pressuring Iran to make concessions to end hostilities.
On Friday, Trump stated he was not sending ground troops to Iran but added:
"If I were, I certainly wouldn't tell you".
This ambiguity suggests a deliberate lack of clarity.
Iran’s Response and Regional Risks
In response to the threat against Kharg Island, Iran’s state media reported on Saturday that any attack would provoke Iranian actions to create "insecurity" in the Red Sea, another critical global shipping route, and to "set fire" to energy facilities throughout the region.
This warning highlights the risks of US escalation, which could expose American forces to retaliatory strikes by Iran.
Congressional Reaction and Funding Requests
Earlier in the week, US media reported that the Trump administration was preparing to request $200 billion (£150 billion) in emergency funding from Congress to support ongoing military operations against Iran. Such a request suggests preparations for a prolonged and costly conflict, contradicting claims that the war is winding down.
Congressional response, including from Trump’s Republican allies, was cautious. Republican Congressman Chip Roy of Texas commented:
"We're talking about boots on the ground. We're talking about that kind of extended activity. They have got a whole lot more briefing and a whole lot more explaining to do on how we're going to pay for it, and what's the mission here."
Conclusion: The Fog of War and Uncertain Future
The "fog of war" clouds not only military planning but also political and public perception. The Iran conflict currently stands at a critical juncture, but its future direction remains uncertain.
