Japan PM to Hold Challenging Talks with Trump
Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is set to meet with former US President Donald Trump in what she anticipates will be a "very difficult" discussion. This meeting comes just days after Trump's appeal for allies to assist in securing the conflict-affected Strait of Hormuz received limited support.
Prior to her departure, Takaichi addressed parliament, stating she would "do everything to maximise [Japan's] national interest." The three-day visit to Washington was initially intended to focus on trade and strengthening the US-Japan alliance ahead of Trump's planned diplomatic trip to China, which has since been postponed due to the ongoing war.
However, the war-related issues are expected to dominate the agenda, turning the meeting into a significant test of Takaichi's relationship with Trump. The visit was arranged in October, shortly after Takaichi assumed office, during which Tokyo welcomed Trump with high honors and both leaders expressed optimism about a new "golden age" in bilateral relations.
Until recently, the meeting appeared promising, with Takaichi "fresh off a dominant election victory and with a new round of investment projects in the US," according to Emma Chanlett-Avery, director for political and security affairs at the Asia Society Policy Institute. Takaichi had planned to build on the positive rapport from her first meeting with Trump and emphasize Japan's concerns about Chinese aggression ahead of Trump's then-scheduled meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Recent developments, however, have complicated the situation. Earlier this week, Trump posted on his Truth Social platform urging some countries to assist in securing the vital Strait of Hormuz, citing Japan's and other Asian economies' reliance on Middle Eastern fuel as justification. He wrote, "We get less than 1% of our oil from the [Strait of Hormuz] and some countries get much more... We want them to come and help us." After a lukewarm response, Trump retracted his request, stating later that the US did "NOT NEED THE HELP OF ANYONE!"
Takaichi acknowledged the challenges of visiting the White House during this tense period. She told reporters on Wednesday,
"I want to engage in substantial discussions based on Japan's point of view and our way of thinking. The top priority is the early de-escalation of the situation."
Potential US Requests and Japan's Constraints
Political scientist Koichi Nakano of Tokyo's Sophia University remarked,
"No one knows, however, what exactly Trump is going to demand, and whether [Takaichi] will really have the guts to decline on the spot."Analysts note that it would be difficult for Takaichi to outright refuse if Trump requests assistance in securing the strait, given that nearly 95% of Japan's oil supply passes through it.
Another complication is Japan's pacifist constitution, adopted after World War Two, which restricts the country from using force to resolve conflicts except in cases of self-defense. Direct military involvement would also be highly unpopular domestically; a recent poll by The Asahi Shimbun showed that 82% of Japanese voters disapprove of the war.
Discussion Topics Beyond the Strait
Takaichi is expected to raise concerns about China, which remains Japan's "biggest strategic challenge," according to Sheila Smith of the US-based Council on Foreign Relations. Relations between Beijing and Tokyo have deteriorated since November, when Takaichi suggested Japan might deploy its self-defense forces if Taiwan were attacked. China claims Taiwan as its own territory and has not ruled out using force to "reunify" with it.
Takaichi has neither apologized nor retracted her comments. The leaders are also anticipated to discuss Japan's involvement in the US Golden Dome missile defense system, inspired by Israel's Iron Dome, which has intercepted rockets and missiles since 2011. An initial budget of $25 billion (£18.7 billion) has been allocated for the project, according to Japanese media reports last week.
Koichi Nakano noted that the outcome of the meeting will largely depend on Trump's mood, saying,
"The world will be gauging Trump's mood, though that can only last for several hours perhaps, so not much of an indicator of anything." He added, "The president is known to have a transactional understanding of alliance relationships in general."
Trade and Economic Relations
Trade is another critical topic. Japan's economy faces challenges including rising inflation, a weak yen, and sluggish consumer spending, making a stable economic partnership with the US particularly important. Takaichi is likely to present herself as a cooperative leader with whom Trump can do business.
Mireya Solís of the Brookings Institution, an expert on Japanese foreign economic policy, highlighted that Tokyo has aimed to be the first among Washington's trade partners to fulfill commitments made in exchange for tariff reductions. In February, Trump announced initial projects under Japan's $550 billion investment pledge, which secured some tax relief, including a reduction of US tariffs on Japanese auto imports from 27.5% to 15%.
Takaichi is expected to announce additional projects worth approximately $100 billion during her meeting with Trump. However, the visit coincides with Washington initiating an unfair trade practice investigation into Japan and other countries, which could result in new tariffs. Japan will seek to ensure it does not leave the meeting with less favorable terms than previously agreed.
