Flight Cancellations and Rising Prices Amid Middle East Conflict
The cost of flights has been increasing since the onset of the conflict in the Middle East, causing concern for those planning summer holidays. Additionally, some airlines are reducing the number of flights they operate, potentially disrupting travel plans.
Which Airlines Are Cancelling Flights?
Several airlines serving the UK have announced plans to reduce their flight schedules. However, some companies have stated they will maintain their current flight operations.
What Is Happening to Flight Prices?
While certain airlines are cutting back flights to reduce expenses, others have indicated they will increase passenger charges or add fees for luggage. Some carriers are both reducing flights and raising prices.
Can Airlines Change Prices or Cancel Flights After Booking?
Rory Boland, travel editor at consumer publication Which?, explains that cancellations will represent a very small fraction of the millions of flights in and out of the UK. Adjustments will primarily affect routes with multiple daily flights, allowing passengers to be rebooked on earlier or later flights.
However, some travelers may be rescheduled onto flights the following day, potentially disrupting holiday plans.
Airlines are not permitted to increase ticket prices after purchase. Low-cost Spanish regional airline Volotea has faced criticism for announcing surcharges on already sold tickets and is being challenged by local consumer rights groups.
"An airline or tour operator could only raise the price post-sale if they had a specific caveat written into the terms and conditions," says independent consumer commentator Jane Hawkes.
Airlines are more likely to increase future prices, including fees for hold baggage or other extras.
Regarding package holidays, tour operators can add up to 8% to the cost after booking due to "a significant rise in fuel costs," according to Boland. However, Which? found that most operators have pledged not to impose surcharges this year.
Why Are Airlines Raising Prices?
A significant portion of the aviation industry's jet fuel comes from the Gulf region, with most shipments passing through the Strait of Hormuz, which has been effectively closed to shipping since early March.
Although airlines are not currently experiencing physical fuel shortages, warnings have been issued about potential shortages by summer if the conflict continues.
Meanwhile, the constrained supply has caused jet fuel prices to rise sharply, roughly doubling during March and the first half of April.
Airlines hedge fuel prices by securing deals in advance to lock in lower rates, so they are not immediately facing doubled fuel costs. However, over the longer term, they will incur higher expenses.
The largest fare increases have been on long-haul routes via Asia. For example, flights from London to Melbourne in June now cost 76% more than last year, and flights to Hong Kong have risen by 72%, according to consultancy Teneo.
This is because the Middle East conflict has forced airlines to reroute flights to avoid the Gulf airspace. Longer routes consume more jet fuel, increasing both quantity used and cost per tonne.
European airfares have not yet experienced significant increases, according to Boland.
Should I Book My Summer Holiday Now or Wait?
"There's no right or wrong," says Jane Hawkes. "It could pay to wait for last-minute deals, or you might want to seize the moment now. She doesn't expect prices to fall over the rest of the year, however, because airlines still need to cover the increased costs."
"I don't see any quick remedy coming along," she says. "I think this year passengers just have to be prepared to take the hit."
Hawkes advises travelers to be flexible about destinations and travel dates, consider alternative transport such as road or rail, or holiday within the UK.
She also recommends purchasing travel insurance and verifying that policies cover travel disruptions.
Additionally, she suggests maintaining a "contingency pot" of funds because, although holiday operators or airlines are expected to cover disruptions, travelers may need to pay upfront and await reimbursement, which can take months.
What Are My Rights If My Flight Is Cancelled?
If a booked flight is cancelled, airlines are obligated to either transport passengers to their destination or provide a refund.
For delays exceeding a few hours, airlines must provide or cover the cost of food and hotel accommodation under normal circumstances.
However, in cases of war, adverse weather, or other extraordinary events beyond an airline's control, compensation is not required.
Airlines are currently seeking clarification on whether fuel shortages caused by the ongoing conflict and resulting price increases qualify as "extraordinary circumstances."
If accommodation is booked separately, airlines are not responsible for compensating missed days.
"You have far better protection if you book a package holiday," Boland says. "For example, if a flight is cancelled a tour operator should extend your stay or offer you an alternative holiday, and if it can't, it will need to refund you in full for the whole holiday."
