Starmer to say ‘incremental change won’t cut it’ in major make-or-break speech to avert leadership challenge
Good morning. The news this morning is dominated by speculation about whether a Labour leadership contest will occur. A more accurate description might be that a leadership contest is already underway; Angela Rayner issued a statement late yesterday afternoon (also hinting she would be happy for Andy Burnham to lead), and Keir Starmer is delivering what could be seen as a hustings speech this morning.
Leaders can survive challenges. In 1995, John Major was widely perceived as vulnerable, but Michael Portillo delayed his decision to stand against him. Major easily defeated a challenge from John Redwood (who in some respects was the Catherine West of his era), and he remained leader for another two years. In 2016, despite the vast majority of Labour MPs voting no confidence in Jeremy Corbyn, he survived due to strong support from Labour members, a benefit Starmer does not enjoy. In 2006, Tony Blair accepted he would have to step down, but Gordon Brown and his allies, while powerful enough to force Blair out, did not do so quickly.
No one knows how this will conclude. It could be fatal for Starmer, but that is not certain.
In his speech this morning, Starmer will assert that “incremental change won’t cut it.” According to extracts released in advance, he will say:
To meet the challenges that our country faces, incremental change won’t cut it.
On growth, defence, Europe, energy – we need a bigger response than we anticipated in 2024 because these are not ordinary times.
Strength through fairness. It’s a core Labour argument. And you will see those values writ large in the king’s speech. And you will see hope, urgency and exactly whose side we are on.
The challenge Starmer faces is that for many people, including Labour MPs such as Josh Simons who addressed this point, “incremental change” sounds like a definition of Starmerism.
Here is the agenda for the day:
- 12.30pm: Angela Rayner, the former deputy PM, is scheduled to speak at the CWU conference in Bournemouth.
- Around lunchtime: Catherine West, the former minister, is expected to respond to Starmer’s speech. If unconvinced that he can turn things around, she will formally begin the process of gathering the 81 signatures needed to launch a leadership challenge.
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Kyle says it was Burnham himself who chose to leave Commons, dismissing talk of swift Labour return for mayor
In his Today interview, Peter Kyle, the business secretary, dismissed the idea popular among left-leaning Labour MPs who want Andy Burnham to replace Starmer at some point, that the party should facilitate Burnham’s quick return to the Commons via a by-election.
Asked about Burnham’s return, he said:
When it comes to Andy directly, I’ll answer Andy’s question directly.
The reason that Andy Burnham is not in parliament is not because of Keir Starmer. It is because Andy Burnham decided to leave parliament and give up his seat.
He went to Manchester and he made a series of commitments to Manchester. And I think those commitments should be seen through.
Now, whether he comes back or not is a matter for the NEC [national executive committee]. It’s not a matter for the prime minister or myself.
But look, my own personal view is that there is a very long established pathway into parliament. I took it by standing as a candidate in 2013, in a Tory seat incidentally, worked on a huge campaign with lots of people, and I won. That’s the standard way back into parliament.
And I think right now, after what we’ve just been through last week, to suggest that the answer is to have another byelection and then a mayoral election, and then all the uncertainty that would go with it – my personal view is that it is not the time for those sorts of actions and distractions.
Starmer to propose stronger links with EU, as Peter Kyle claims significant change possible within Labour's manifesto red lines
In his speech this morning, Keir Starmer will confirm his intention to strengthen ties with the EU. According to extracts released in advance, he will say:
This Labour government will be defined by rebuilding our relationship and by putting Britain at the heart of Europe. So that we are stronger on the economy, on trade, on defence, you name it.
Because standing shoulder to shoulder with the countries that most share our interests, our values and our enemies – that is the right choice for Britain, that is the Labour choice.
However, the Labour manifesto also ruled out joining the single market or a customs union with the EU, and Starmer is not expected to reverse those positions.
Peter Kyle, the business secretary, gave interviews this morning suggesting that these red lines are not problematic because much can be done to deepen relations with the EU without abandoning them. In his interview on the Today programme, he said:
We’ve not touched the sides on what we can do with the European Union within the manifesto commitments, and I think that’s what you’re going to start seeing more of from Keir today.
