Election Results Confirm Fragmentation in UK Politics
Thursday's election outcomes have confirmed that electoral politics in Britain has become highly fragmented.
Reform UK Emerges as the Dominant Force in English Local Elections
Reform UK was clearly the winner of the English local elections, securing the most seats and votes. The party is projected to achieve well over 1,000 net gains.
In a sample of more than 500 council wards where the BBC collected detailed voting figures, Reform UK recorded an average vote share of 25%. While not an exceptionally high figure, it was sufficient to place Reform well ahead of its rivals.
Nigel Farage's party performed best in areas that voted heavily for Brexit in 2016. In wards where more than 60% voted to Leave, Reform's support averaged 40%.
Conversely, in wards where less than 40% backed Brexit, Reform's average vote share was just 10%.
Green Party Achieves Best Election Result to Date
The Green Party's success was more modest but still represented their best election result ever, averaging 17% of the vote.
This marks an eight-point increase compared to the party's support during the last round of local elections in 2022, and seven points higher than its performance in the local elections held shortly before the 2024 general election, which was previously their best local election showing.
The Greens have gained more than 200 seats and secured the mayoralty of two London boroughs along with control of three councils. The party frequently achieved several credible second and especially third places, though relatively few first-place finishes.
Labour and Conservatives Face Significant Losses
In contrast, both Labour and the Conservatives have experienced sharp declines in support.
Labour's vote share has dropped by an average of 18 points compared to 2022 and 2024. The decline has been particularly pronounced in areas where the party was previously strongest and in wards with large Muslim populations.
This trend has exacerbated Labour's seat losses, which amount to more than half of the seats the party was defending. To date, Labour has lost control of 23 councils.
Labour's situation in Wales was even more severe, where it had not lost an election in a century. The party fell to third place with only 11% of the vote, a 25-point decrease from the last election in 2021.
Plaid Cymru has now become the largest party in Wales with 43 of the 96 seats, making it likely that all three devolved governments will have nationalist first ministers. This shift has been described as an electoral earthquake.
Conservative Support Declines Sharply Amid Reform UK Surge
Conservative support has decreased by an average of 11 points since 2022 and 10 points since 2024, by which time the party had already lost much of its previous popularity.
The decline was especially significant in areas where Reform UK support was highest, highlighting the threat Reform poses to Kemi Badenoch's party. The Conservatives have lost more than half of the seats they were defending, with the greatest losses occurring in their traditional strongholds.
One positive development for the Conservatives was regaining control of Westminster, a prized area in London previously lost to Labour in 2022.
However, this success largely reflected a sharp 17-point drop in Labour support rather than gains by the Conservatives themselves, whose vote share also fell by five points. Westminster remains one of the few areas where the contest is primarily between Conservative and Labour candidates.
Liberal Democrats Fail to Achieve Anticipated Gains
The Liberal Democrats had expected to make significant gains but largely did not. The party gained control of Portsmouth and Stockport but lost control of Hull.
On average, Liberal Democrat support declined by five points compared to 2022 and three points compared to 2024. The party's seat gains mainly resulted from capitalizing on sharp declines in Conservative or Labour support in areas where it was previously the second-placed party.
While the Liberal Democrats are on track to make gains in Scotland, they again hold just one seat in Wales. There is little indication that the party can match the electoral progress made by Reform UK or even the Greens.
Analysis Contributors
This analysis was conducted by Patrick English, Steve Fisher, Robert Ford, Lotte Hargrave, Johnathon Mellon, and Stuart Perrett.
