Labour's Electoral Challenges and Leadership Questions
Labour is currently trailing in the polls, with the prime minister's personal approval ratings reaching notably low levels.
The party is anticipating losses in upcoming elections, including the potential loss of control in Wales, a decline in councillor numbers in England, and setbacks in Scotland.
Compounding these difficulties, the prime minister has faced criticism over the appointment of Lord Mandelson as ambassador to the US and the subsequent dismissal of senior civil servant Sir Olly Robbins amid a dispute concerning security vetting.
Within Westminster, the prevailing question is not whether a Labour leadership contest should occur, but rather why such a contest is not expected immediately following the anticipated electoral setbacks on 8 May.
Labour MP Jonathan Brash has publicly called for Sir Keir Starmer to resign and to establish a timetable for his departure, a view privately shared by some others. However, no other MPs have publicly supported Brash's position, and the general sentiment appears to oppose an imminent leadership challenge.
One veteran Labour MP commented:
"Keir Starmer is basically dead, isn't he? And because people think it is inevitable that he won't lead us into the next election, there isn't the rush."
While discussions about appointing a caretaker leader exist, many MPs are hesitant. As one MP stated:
"We have to be sure that when there is a contest we can have a candidate who can lead us in to the next election."
They further noted that frequent leadership changes would damage trust, and identifying a candidate capable of reinvigorating both the party and the electorate remains challenging.
There is consensus across the party's spectrum that no clear leader-in-waiting is currently present within Parliament.
A centre-left MP remarked:
"The PLP (Parliamentary Labour Party) thinks the situation is terminal – but we have thought that since February. We don't have an option in Wes [Streeting] because of the Mandelson thing - despite his data dump of the text messages with him.
And there is a growing 'stop Ange' [Angela Rayner] mood because we don't think she'd win an election."
A left-leaning MP described Rayner, the former deputy leader, as "compromised" due to her tax affairs and acceptance of lucrative speaking engagements.
Meanwhile, a minister reflected on Labour's Scottish leader Anas Sarwar's February call for Sir Keir's resignation, which could have initiated a leadership contest but instead resulted in ministerial declarations of loyalty.
"What it proved was neither Wes nor Angie were ready for it. I was waiting for a call (from Steeting's team) and it never came,"
they said.
A Labour figure with roots in the Blair era observed that following damaging headlines about Lord Mandelson, frustration was widespread:
"We will tank in the elections. But we are back where we were a week ago. There is no easy mechanism (to remove a leader) and there is no obvious candidate."
Beyond Westminster: Potential Candidates
Despite the lack of clear leadership options within Parliament, one potential candidate remains a topic of discussion among MPs. A former frontbencher noted:
"The problem is that the solution isn't in Westminster."
This refers to Andy Burnham, who was prevented from standing as a candidate in the Gorton and Denton by-election earlier this year.
"He is the person who just about everyone could live with - unless you are Wes Streeting," the former frontbencher added.
Another potential Burnham supporter expressed a more cautious view, acknowledging that the Greater Manchester mayor would require a "very safe seat" due to Labour's polling and that a supportive MP would need to step aside.
Burnham would also need approval from Labour's National Executive Committee, whose composition might shift in his favor this summer.
One MP suggested that Sir Keir was justified in vetoing Burnham's candidacy from the perspective of political survival:
"If Andy had been back (in Westminster) things would have moved by now,"
they said.
Some MPs express a fatalistic outlook. A minister commented:
"Starmer is seriously unpopular. I think we are going to lose the next election. The only way we win is if people feel better off and I have not heard a serious argument from any possible candidate about how they could achieve that in such a short space of time."
Cabinet Dynamics and Leadership Prospects
Some MPs look to those closest to Sir Keir to initiate his removal, drawing parallels to the way Conservative Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher was urged to resign over thirty years ago.
One MP observed:
"Lots of cabinet ministers seem to know that he is not going to lead us in to the next election - the question is whether they want to force something to happen soon or to wait until it's too late."
However, some MPs believe ministers are pursuing individual agendas. A minister assessed:
"They are on manoeuvres."
It has been noted that Energy Secretary Ed Miliband distanced himself from the decision to appoint Lord Mandelson as ambassador to Washington; Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper and Work and Pensions Secretary Pat McFadden criticized attempts by No 10 to explore an ambassadorial role for Matthew (now Lord) Doyle, the departing head of communications in 2025.
Several ministers have privately questioned the manner of Sir Olly Robbins's dismissal.
An influential Labour figure interpreted these developments as signs of eroding loyalty, stating:
"Serious cabinet ministers are not prepared to defend [the PM] or sully themselves."
Another MP remarked:
"They are looking for life rafts. They are thinking six months ahead, and they are saying that they would still very much like to be in the cabinet. Someone else's cabinet."
An MP close to Miliband offered a more direct explanation:
"Ed just said: Stuff this, I'm telling the truth."
There had been speculation that the prime minister might regain momentum after the May elections through new legislation in the King's Speech and a cabinet reshuffle. However, this now appears riskier, especially following the latest revelations concerning Mandelson. Disgruntled former ministers could pose significant challenges.
Behind the scenes, the prime minister has been working to strengthen his position with skeptical MPs. This has included receptions for backbenchers and visits to Chequers, his grace-and-favour country residence.
He is also conducting meetings with regional groups of MPs and internal campaign groups. On Wednesday, he met with the Red Wall group, whose members represent Reform-facing seats, to discuss extending the party's industrial strategy to small and medium-sized towns.
Attendees report that these meetings are "constructive," allowing MPs to speak frankly, with Sir Keir listening more than speaking.
Following the departure of Morgan McSweeney as chief of staff, some MPs who previously felt overlooked now report improved engagement with No 10.
Sir Keir's political director, Amy Richards—formerly a long-standing aide to Yvette Cooper—is receiving praise for dismantling what some perceived as a "boy's club" behind No 10's closed doors.
However, members of the women's Parliamentary Labour Party remain deeply upset about the Doyle revelations and are calling for more women to be promoted to prominent positions.
Despite recent events, a leadership crisis appears unlikely in the immediate term.
Severe electoral losses are, in the words of several MPs, "priced in."
Nonetheless, there is often a gap between theoretical expectations and practical outcomes. How the loss of seats will impact morale after next month's elections remains uncertain. The reactions of disgruntled former councillors to their MPs could be significant.
Some fear the emotional toll of electoral defeats could be overwhelming.
One MP said:
"People think they are ready for it but there is a real chance of things going crazy that weekend. Everything could collapse very fast."
Another MP described the Parliamentary Labour Party as:
"like a tinderbox – it might just ignite in May."
Conversely, an MP recounted concerns expressed by a colleague loyal to the prime minister:
"They said to me, 'I do hope the PLP doesn't do anything rash'.
I said 'there's no chance of the PLP ever doing anything rash'."
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