Labour members favor Burnham as leader and predict election win under him, poll reveals
Good morning. A week ago, during cabinet, Keir Starmer delivered a speech. Wes Streeting, his main rival, chose not to launch a leadership challenge but publicly expressed his lack of confidence in the prime minister and resigned. Subsequently, Andy Burnham identified a potential seat, indicating that if he wins the upcoming by-election, a leadership contest is postponed rather than avoided.
Currently, there is no by-election polling data available from Makerfield. However, YouGov released a poll last night that is significant because Labour members' opinions will shape forthcoming developments.
Labour members prefer Burnham over Starmer as party leader. When asked to rank eight potential candidates, Burnham ranked higher.
When the poll narrowed the choice to Starmer versus Burnham, Burnham led by a ratio of 3 to 2.
Members also believe the party is likely to win the next general election with Burnham as leader, but not with Starmer. These findings are among the most critical in the report.
Despite generally viewing Starmer's performance positively, Labour members want him to step down before the next election. Only 28% support Starmer leading the party into the election, while 66% rate his job as prime minister as fairly good (50%) or very good (16%).
Angela Rayner, the former deputy prime minister, holds the highest favourability ratings among potential leadership candidates, despite not being the preferred choice for leader. This suggests members can like a figure without considering them suitable for prime minister. Rayner leads in combined 'very/somewhat favourable' ratings, but Burnham is most popular on 'very favourable' alone.
Agenda for the day
- 10am: James Graham, playwright, and Marina Hyde, columnist and entertainment podcaster, provide evidence to the Commons culture committee on the BBC charter renewal.
- 11.30am: David Lammy, justice secretary and deputy prime minister, answers questions in the Commons.
- Noon: Downing Street holds a lobby briefing.
- 12.10pm: Yvette Cooper, foreign secretary, speaks at the Global Partnerships Conference, expected to warn that the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a "global food crisis."
- After 12.30pm: Heidi Alexander, transport secretary, is expected to make a statement to MPs on HS2.
- Afternoon: MPs resume the king’s speech debate, focusing on energy policy.
- 1.30pm: Rhun ap Iorwerth, Welsh first minister, delivers a statement to the Senedd outlining government priorities.
- 2pm: MSPs meet to elect a first minister, with SNP’s John Swinney expected to be confirmed.
- 2.30pm: Anne Longfield, chair of the grooming gangs inquiry, gives evidence to the Commons home affairs committee.
- 4pm: Birmingham city council, currently under no overall control, holds its first meeting since elections; councillors will appoint a leader.
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Burnham calls Makerfield by-election 'most consequential of our lives' in campaign video
Reform UK launched online attack advertisements targeting Andy Burnham, portraying him as an opportunist and carpetbagger in the Makerfield by-election.
These adverts might have been more effective if Burnham had stood as a candidate in Norwich South, where Labour MP Clive Lewis once suggested he might vacate his seat for Burnham. However, Burnham grew up in the Makerfield area, sent his children to local schools, and resides just outside the constituency. By reasonable standards, he qualifies as a local candidate, a point noted by Benedict Pringle, who writes a blog on political advertising.
Burnham, who has yet to be officially confirmed as Labour’s candidate, released his own campaign video yesterday, which was notably more compelling. In it, he emphasizes his connections to the constituency.
In the video, Burnham also addresses Reform UK's criticism that the by-election is unnecessary and motivated by personal ambition.
"I am standing because I want to change the way politics in the UK works," Burnham says, describing the by-election as "the most consequential of our lives."
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