Introduction to the Upcoming Elections
Voters in Scotland and Wales are scheduled to cast their ballots on 7 May in elections for their respective parliaments, Holyrood and the Senedd. As political parties prepare for these elections, a recent poll conducted for the BBC has explored the primary issues influencing voter intentions in both nations.
Top Issues Influencing Voters
The poll indicates that three main issues dominate the concerns of voters in Scotland and Wales. The foremost issue is the state of the economy, with particular emphasis on the cost of living. The second key concern is the performance of health and social care services. The third significant issue is immigration levels.
However, the importance of these issues varies among different voter groups. Health and social care services are especially prominent concerns among older voters and women. Immigration is a notable issue for those who supported the Reform party in the 2024 election. Additionally, younger voters frequently highlight housing as a fourth important issue.
Despite these variations, it is evident that political parties cannot overlook these three critical issues if they aim to secure victory in the elections.
Public Perceptions of National Direction
Across Scotland and Wales, there is widespread apprehension regarding the trajectory of their countries. In both nations, a substantial majority—well over half—believe that their economies have worsened over the past 12 months. Similarly, approximately half of the respondents feel that health services have deteriorated during this period. Those who perceive improvements in the economy or health services are notably few.
Regarding immigration, although more people in both countries view migrants from outside the UK as beneficial than harmful, about half of the population feels that fewer migrants should be allowed to live in their country.
Interestingly, even supporters of the Scottish National Party (SNP) and Plaid Cymru—both of which have adopted relatively liberal policies on immigration and asylum seekers—tend to favor reducing migration levels rather than increasing them. This sentiment is also prevalent among Labour voters in both Scotland and Wales.
Implications for Incumbent Governments
This prevailing critical mood presents challenges for the incumbent SNP government in Edinburgh and the Labour government in Cardiff. It might be expected that voters would hold these administrations accountable for the current situation and seek alternative leadership for the next five years.
However, the situation is more complex. Voters do not uniformly attribute responsibility for these issues to their devolved governments.
Attribution of Responsibility
In both Scotland and Wales, more than two-thirds of respondents believe that responsibility for the state of the economy lies wholly or partly with the UK government. Approximately half assign similar responsibility to the UK government regarding health services, despite the fact that the National Health Service (NHS) in both countries is managed by their respective devolved governments.
SNP supporters, in particular, are inclined to attribute economic responsibility to the UK government, especially if they perceive a decline over the past year. Similarly, most Labour supporters in Wales also tend to blame the UK government, even though Labour holds power at both the devolved and UK levels.
Funding and Fiscal Perceptions
One possible explanation for voters' tendency to blame London is the funding structure of the devolved governments. Much of their funding is provided through grants from the UK government, and around half of respondents feel their country does not receive a fair share of these funds.
Supporters of nationalist parties in Scotland and Wales are particularly likely to hold this view, but it is also relatively common among Labour supporters in Wales.
Taxation Powers and Voter Reluctance
The Scottish and Welsh governments have the option to address funding shortfalls by adjusting taxes, primarily through their powers to set income tax rates differently from the rest of the UK.
In recent years, the Scottish government has exercised its extensive income tax powers to increase revenues. Conversely, the Welsh government has not utilized its more limited powers in this area.
Despite this, there appears to be considerable reluctance among voters in both countries to accept income tax rates that differ from those in England. This reluctance extends even to nationalist supporters.
Welfare Spending and Public Opinion
Since gaining responsibility for many welfare benefits, the Scottish government has implemented a more generous welfare regime. Nonetheless, about half of people in Scotland—and similarly in Wales—believe that welfare spending levels should align with those in England. This perspective is also shared by a notable portion of nationalist supporters.
The Challenge of Devolution
Devolution was designed to empower Scotland and Wales to make independent policy decisions and to hold their devolved politicians accountable during elections for their governance choices.
However, many voters in both countries still perceive their nation's fate as significantly influenced by decisions made at Westminster. Simultaneously, they express caution about living under tax and spending regimes that differ from those in England.
For politicians across all parties, the period leading up to 7 May presents the challenge of convincingly demonstrating the relevance and importance of the devolved institutions they seek to lead.
