HS2 Project Cost and Timeline Update
The HS2 rail project could now cost up to £102.7 billion, according to an announcement by the transport secretary. The commencement of train services is expected between 2036 and 2039, which is up to six years later than the previously targeted date of 2033, Heidi Alexander informed the House of Commons.
In an effort to reduce expenses, the trains' maximum speed, initially planned at 360 km/h (224 mph), will be lowered to 320 km/h. These changes in cost estimates, delayed start dates, and reduced train speeds are part of a comprehensive "reset" of the project, which has experienced delays, budget overruns, and significant scaling back.
Lovegrove Report and Project Challenges
Heidi Alexander released the Lovegrove report on the project, which she described as outlining the "litany of failure" inherited from the previous government.
"Instead of signalling the country's ambition, HS2 became a signal of the country's decline," she told Members of Parliament.
Alexander stated that the rail project is now projected to cost between £87.7 billion and £102.7 billion in 2025 prices.
For context, in 2013, the project was forecast to cost £50.1 billion in 2011 prices, which equates to approximately £75 billion in current terms when accounting for inflation. However, that earlier forecast was based on the line extending to Manchester and Leeds, whereas the current plan covers the route from London to Birmingham.
Cost Increases and Causes
According to the government, two-thirds of the cost increase is attributed to underestimation by the previous government, inefficient project delivery, and omissions in the original scope of work. The remaining one-third of the increase is due to inflation, as explained by Alexander.
Train Speed Reduction and Savings
The revised maximum speed of 320 km/h aligns with high-speed rail services in Europe and Japan. The government indicates that this adjustment could save up to £2.5 billion and enable the project to be completed a year earlier.
Revised Service Timeline
The updated schedule anticipates train services operating between Old Oak Common in west London and Birmingham Curzon Street. Full service from London Euston to Curzon Street, including a connection to the West Coast Main Line, is not expected until between 2040 and 2043.
"We will get the job done but we will also take every opportunity to save time and money in the process, getting a grip on delivery, controlling costs, and stripping out the complexity that's plagued the project in the past," Alexander said.
