Andy Burnham is being considered a potential candidate for the next prime minister following Sir Keir Starmer's announcement of his resignation outside Downing Street on Monday morning.
Burnham is scheduled to be sworn in as the Member of Parliament for the Makerfield constituency later on Monday, after his landmark victory in last week's by-election.
During the by-election campaign, Burnham outlined several policy proposals.
He pledged to adhere to the economic rules established by Chancellor Rachel Reeves, signaling that if he becomes prime minister, he would not oversee a significant increase in borrowing.
Additionally, Burnham has committed to Labour's manifesto promise not to raise the main rates of income tax, VAT, or National Insurance, which would limit his capacity to generate substantial revenue through taxation.
Helen Miller, director at the Institute for Fiscal Studies, commented:
"Whoever is the prime minister, they will find that, within the fiscal rules, there is very limited scope to increase spending on a particular area without cutting back spending elsewhere or raising taxes."
Many policy areas remain unaddressed by Burnham during his campaign; however, the following outlines some potential changes he might pursue if he assumes office.
Public control of water, energy and transport
Burnham has consistently advocated for bringing water services "back under stronger public control," citing the Greater Manchester bus network as a model. This network is operated by private companies but maintains public oversight and control. He has also supported public ownership of companies such as Thames Water.
In his victory speech after winning the Makerfield seat, Burnham stated:
"We do need to bring down water bills, energy bills, rail fares, just as we brought down bus fares in Greater Manchester, to make life more affordable for people."
The government has estimated the cost of nationalising the entire water industry at £100 billion, although this figure has been disputed by some think tanks.
If a Burnham government pursued a gradual public ownership of rail companies as their contracts expire—a plan initiated by Louise Haigh, who managed Burnham's campaign and previously served as transport secretary—this could significantly reduce costs.
However, without further details, it is difficult to estimate the expense associated with implementing "stronger public control"—short of full nationalisation—of key utilities.
Social care
Burnham has long supported social care reform, dating back to his tenure as a health minister under Tony Blair (2006-07) and as health secretary under Gordon Brown (2009-2010).
He has repeatedly proposed replacing inheritance tax with a "national care levy," which, according to a 2023 speech, would ensure that "care [that] is provided is free" and that "everybody would pay but obviously the wealthiest would pay the most."
When questioned about these commitments during the by-election campaign, Burnham stated he did not "resile" from his previous position on inheritance tax.
It remains unclear how much revenue the proposed levy would generate.
The cost of social care reform depends on the model adopted. The Health Foundation think tank estimated in 2024 that implementing an NHS-style universal and comprehensive care system could require approximately £17 billion in additional funding by 2035/36.
Alternatively, a model similar to Scotland's, which offers basic protection against some care costs, would cost around £7 billion by 2035/36 to replicate in England.
Defence spending
One of the most urgent challenges facing Burnham if he succeeds Sir Keir Starmer is the ongoing dispute over the government's defence investment plan.
Last week, John Healey resigned as defence secretary, criticizing draft government proposals that would reduce UK defence spending to 2.68% of GDP by 2030, falling "well short" of the 3% target he deemed necessary.
This occurred amid reports that the Ministry of Defence (MoD) sought an additional £28 billion in funding through the end of the decade but had only been offered £10 billion.
In an interview with The Times following Healey's resignation, Burnham emphasized the need for reform in public investment and procurement alongside a 10-year defence and security strategy.
He stated that such reforms would reduce welfare expenditures by encouraging recipients to enter the workforce, thereby freeing funds for defence.
"I am not squeamish about saying that the plan would be to reduce the welfare bill. Not at all," he said.
Big council home expansion and possible tax reforms
During his campaign launch speech, Burnham declared his intention to initiate "the biggest programme of council house building since the Second World War."
He suggested funding this by reallocating the existing £39 billion affordable housing programme exclusively to social rent homes.
Burnham also indicated a desire to reform business, property, and land taxation, including changes to what he described as a "highly regressive" council tax.
He has long supported a land value tax (LVT), an annual tax based solely on the value of land, excluding buildings or improvements.
In a 2022 interview with LBC, Burnham described LVT as:
"a very productive form of taxation because you make sure land is used for good, productive purposes, and if people are sitting on it and hoarding it, they get taxed and that money can come back and be redistributed."
He has previously suggested that LVT revenue could be used to abolish stamp duty, which is levied on property or land purchases.
An Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) report noted several advantages of LVT, including its fixed supply and immobility, which prevent the disincentive effects associated with other taxes.
The report described LVT as an "efficient way to tax a wealthy group," while acknowledging potential fairness concerns.
Northern leg of HS2 making a comeback?
In an interview with iNews, Burnham expressed interest in reviving the northern leg of HS2 between Birmingham and Manchester.
When this section was cancelled by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak in 2023, the estimated cost of completion was £36 billion.
Burnham proposed recovering some of this cost by capturing the increase in land value surrounding new stations.
"You don't take all the windfall off the landholder, but you share the proceeds of that windfall, and the increase in land values created by the infrastructure is captured to pay back the cost of the infrastructure," he told the publication.
However, the exact amount recoverable through this method remains unclear.
The Institute for Fiscal Studies has analyzed how Burnham might finance this project by examining funding approaches used for previous large infrastructure projects such as Crossrail and the Northern Line expansion.
The IFS stated that rail investments could be funded by levying additional business rates in connected areas and by ringfencing developer contributions or business rates growth.
However, the IFS noted that most of these funds are not "new money" but rather reflect the recognition that new infrastructure increases land values and economic activity, generating revenue that can help finance the projects.
Cutting business rates
Burnham has advocated for a "new drive of re-industrialisation" across northern England and the wider UK.
Following his Makerfield victory, he said:
"It's about time we started backing British business and British industry so we can re-industrialise places like this."
During the by-election campaign, his team released a policy document proposing a 20% reduction in business rates for pubs and music venues.
This reduction would be funded by increasing taxes on out-of-town warehouses used by online retailers such as Amazon. Burnham also aims to raise the threshold at which business rates apply, exempting many small high street shops from paying.
Burnham has consistently emphasized the importance of providing young people with alternative pathways to training and employment beyond university.
In his victory speech, he stated a desire for an education system that is not dominated by the university route but "offers a path for everybody, academic and technical in equal balance."
He also expressed commitment to securing more work placements for 16 to 18-year-olds and guarantees of apprenticeships.
National Insurance
Burnham told night he wished to reconsider the increase in National Insurance contributions paid by employers, introduced by Rachel Reeves in the 2024 Budget.
The Office for Budget Responsibility projects this increase will generate £16.1 billion in revenue by 2029/30.
Burnham has not promised to fully reverse this increase but described it as the "wrong decision," leaving unclear whether he would seek a partial rollback.
Waspi women
Burnham has publicly supported the 3.6 million women born in the 1950s who claim they were disadvantaged by inadequate notification of changes to the state pension age. A compensation scheme for these women could cost up to £10.5 billion.
During a campaign hustings event, Burnham reportedly stated he would "stick by the Waspi women because they deserve some recompense for the unfairness."
However, following concerns about the scheme's cost, a spokesperson clarified that Burnham "accepts the final decision" of the government not to provide compensation.
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