Temporary Agreement Raises Hope but Root Issues Persist
Across much of the Middle East, the announcement of a tentative agreement between the US and Iran was met with cautious optimism, tempered by widespread skepticism that the deal would resolve the region's longstanding conflicts or prevent future wars.
In Kuwait, Iyad Joumma, a 37-year-old Jordanian engineer who experienced the 15-week conflict firsthand, expressed a common sentiment.
“While the agreement may allow the region to catch its breath, its success will depend on the ability of the parties involved to address the root causes of the tensions.”
Among a dozen analysts and experts consulted by following the weekend's news of a potential cessation of hostilities, none suggested that the memorandum of understanding (MoU) signed by US and Iranian representatives would offer more than a temporary reprieve.
“It’s just a big Band-Aid and future conflict is like to come at some point,” said Neil Quilliam, a Middle East expert at London’s Chatham House.
Details of the Interim Deal and Its Challenges
The MoU outlines a 60-day cessation of hostilities during which the two sides will negotiate key issues including Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile and nuclear program, sanctions relief, and the release of billions of dollars in frozen Iranian assets. The goal is to reach a comprehensive final settlement.
However, few analysts believe such a settlement can be achieved within this short timeframe—if at all. They reference the protracted 18-month negotiations that culminated in the 2015 nuclear agreement, which exchanged economic incentives for nuclear restrictions and was later abandoned during the Trump administration’s first term.
The current interim deal primarily commits both parties to continued dialogue. It requires Washington to lift its naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and obliges Tehran to permit free passage of all shipping through the strait, a vital corridor that typically carries one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas supplies but was blocked by Iran early in the conflict.
Ceasefires and Their Limitations
In Lebanon, a ceasefire has been reinstated as part of the interim agreement and appears to be holding for now.
Nevertheless, several experts caution that ceasefires in the region often provide limited long-term stability. Gaza serves as a recent example, where nearly 1,000 Palestinians have died since former US President Donald Trump brokered an end to hostilities last year. Hamas has retained its weapons, and little progress has been made toward the planned second and third phases of the agreement, which included a major reconstruction effort.
“Gaza is a case in point. The deal there didn’t contend with the past: the war crimes that had been committed. Nor the present: how to disarm Hamas. Nor the future: a pathway to a viable Palestinian state and a resolution of the conflict,” said Alia Brahimi at the Atlantic Council in Washington. “It’s almost as if … you can use the cover of a ceasefire to continue to achieve your aims, including military ones.”
Brahimi noted that the Gulf region’s strategic geography differs significantly from Gaza’s situation.
“The Strait of Hormuz is of integral importance to the global economy, as the Iranians have demonstrated. They’ve shown us what we always knew in theory: that they can impose cascading stress globally by throwing a few projectiles towards a tanker or two.”
Mkhaimar Abusada, a political science professor at al-Azhar University in Gaza who is currently in Cairo, concurred.
“The ceasefire in Gaza is holding because Hamas knows that if they fire it will give a pretext for another full-scale Israeli ground invasion but the situation in Gaza is disastrous.”
Israeli Concerns and Regional Instability
In Israel, there is disappointment that the deal does not address Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal or its financial support for the so-called Axis of Resistance—a coalition of militant Islamist groups including Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, the Houthis in Yemen, and various militias in Iraq.
Analysts warn that these unresolved issues could threaten regional stability in the near future.
Danny Orbach, a military history professor at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, stated, “The structural change [Israel wants] is that the ‘Axis of Resistance’ must no longer be allowed to threaten Israel with destruction. Israel’s destabilising instinct is to tell all regional actors you will not have stability until you solve our problem, and that problem is Iran. This will not change until the memory of [the] 7 October [attack] fades and that will take years and years.”
Impact on Gulf States and Future Outlook
The most profound impact is being felt in the Sunni Arab Gulf states, where decades of economic growth and increasing diplomatic influence have been challenged.
Repairing the damage to civilian infrastructure caused by Iran’s strikes on Kuwait, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar will take months or even years. Meanwhile, Washington’s reluctance to accept significant casualties, prolonged economic hardship, or domestic dissatisfaction sends a clear message.
“A ‘superpower’ that is not ready to bear 100 casualties is not a superpower,” said Orbach.
H.A. Hellyer of London’s Royal United Services Institute observed that Gulf states will now seek to contain a more confident and potentially more belligerent Iran.
“The realisation that they can’t rely on the US is the point of consensus but otherwise [Gulf states] have all got different views of the best strategy going forward,” Hellyer said. “The Arab world has important and legitimate grievances with how Iran projects power and influence and none of these are being addressed.”
Quilliam described the situation as entering a “new era.”
“The [current] agreement will hold and in 60 days we will probably see positive headlines and the oil and gas will flow [again] but there’ll be no major breakthrough,” he said.
“We know that Hormuz can be closed again, the Iranians have carried out strikes on Gulf states, and we have seen that whatever Israel and the US can do, Iran will take it. All the previous thresholds have been passed now.”
