From Humble Beginnings to Global Aviation Powerhouse
Once a modest stopover for luxury flying boats journeying from the UK to distant parts of the British Empire such as India and Australia, Dubai's aviation landscape has transformed dramatically. By the 1960s, it featured a simple desert sand runway used primarily for refuelling airliners en route to more exotic destinations.
Today, Dubai stands as a cornerstone of global aviation, with Dubai International Airport (DXB) serving as its vibrant core. In 2024, over 92 million passengers passed through its polished marble halls and brightly illuminated shopping centers.
This volume makes DXB the world's busiest airport for international passengers, surpassing London Heathrow, which handled just under 83 million. Dubai is not alone in the Gulf's aviation prominence; Abu Dhabi and Doha airports collectively managed approximately 87 million passengers.
Under typical conditions, these three Gulf airports facilitate over 3,000 daily flights, predominantly operated by local carriers Emirates, Etihad, and Qatar Airways.
However, the ongoing Middle East conflict has severely impacted global aviation. Initially, the closure of some of the world's busiest airspace paralyzed flights, grounding aircraft at major hubs and stranding hundreds of thousands of passengers. Air traffic in the region remains significantly disrupted.
Fuel supplies have also become a critical concern. With refinery outputs in the Gulf restricted after Iran effectively blocked the Strait of Hormuz, the region—normally supplying about half of Europe's jet fuel imports—faces scarcity fears. This has led to a doubling of fuel prices since the conflict began, prompting some carriers to reduce flights.
While these challenges dominate short-term industry concerns and are expected to increase prices in the coming months, longer-term implications remain uncertain.
Industry insiders are particularly focused on the future of the highly successful "Gulf model" of aviation, credited with revolutionizing long-distance travel and reducing costs. The outcome holds significant consequences for airlines, passengers, and Middle Eastern businesses dependent on the region's extensive airline connections.
Chaos in the Departure Halls
The Gulf hubs, typically efficient operations, came to a near standstill following the initial US-Israeli strikes on Iran in late February. The closure of regional airspace grounded aircraft, with some planes forced to return mid-flight.
Tens of thousands of passengers were stranded in Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Qatar, many of whom had arrived solely to transfer flights. Concurrently, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar faced retaliatory drone and missile attacks from Iran, creating a tense and fearful atmosphere for those confined to airports and hotels.
Globally, numerous passengers were unable to travel on their booked flights due to scheduled connections through Gulf hubs, forcing them to seek alternative routes.
Within days, Emirates and Etihad resumed limited services to repatriate stranded travelers, followed shortly by Qatar Airways. Additional carriers outside the region also operated flights, and some governments, including the UK, chartered aircraft to assist evacuations.
Since then, the situation has somewhat stabilized, with the three major carriers maintaining regular flights. However, schedules remain constrained and vulnerable to disruption. Analysts at Cirium report that over 30,000 flights to the Middle East have been cancelled since the conflict's onset.
Much of this disruption unfolded under intense public scrutiny, as travelers shared their experiences and frustrations via social media and news outlets.
Among them was Ian Scott, who was flying from Melbourne to Venice via Doha. His outbound flight from Doha was forced to turn back mid-air, leading to several days in a hotel before he undertook a two-day desert drive to Oman, from where he secured a flight out.
"In future, I would avoid flying via the Gulf hubs, even once hostilities have ceased – because I have 'no faith' the region's troubles would end there," Ian Scott said.
How the Gulf Hubs Became Such a Success
Travelers like Ian Scott pose a significant concern for the operators of Gulf hubs.
Despite Dubai's emergence as a major tourism and business destination, more than half of travelers passing through Gulf hubs are transit passengers.
In the previous year, 47% of Dubai's passengers were connecting flights, compared to 54% in Abu Dhabi and 74% in Doha, according to aviation data firm OAG.
This reflects the core of the Gulf aviation model: passengers arrive on long-haul flights from global cities, connecting seamlessly to a broad network of destinations. This enables journeys such as Boston to Bali or Amsterdam to Antananarivo with a single stop and minimal inconvenience.
This model differs from the traditional "hub-and-spoke" system, which funnels passengers from regional short-haul flights to large planes on busy international routes, and from "point-to-point" flying, which involves direct long-distance flights between secondary cities on smaller aircraft.
The Gulf carriers blend the convenience of point-to-point travel with the economies of scale of hub-and-spoke operations. This unique model relies heavily on geography.
"Within three hours flying time of the Gulf, you have the Middle East, the Indian subcontinent, verging on China. It's a huge market," explained James Hogan, former CEO of Etihad Airways, who led the company from 2006 to 2017.
"The Gulf carriers were able to build a very strong network, not only of hub cities, capital cities – but also the major secondary cities and third cities, which enabled one-stop flying," he added.
Andrew Charlton, managing director of Aviation Advocacy, concurs.
"The Gulf is just in that place where, with the current technology, you can get to practically anywhere on Earth," he said.
In the early 2000s, this positioned Gulf airlines to capitalize on rapid growth in markets like China and India, which European and American carriers initially overlooked.
"The Middle East was suddenly in exactly the right place for the emerging market, which was well east of the Atlantic," Charlton noted.
As newer entrants, Gulf carriers invested in modern fleets tailored to their model. Initially, the Boeing 777 was favored for its 300-seat capacity and 7,000+ nautical mile range, followed by the Airbus A380 superjumbo, capable of carrying over 500 passengers to and from congested airports with limited slots.
"The major differentiator was starting with a clean sheet of paper. That was the secret sauce," Hogan said. "You were able to create a service proposition that couldn't be matched by carriers in more traditional markets, whether that be the USA, Europe or Australasia."
Consequently, Gulf carriers and their hubs have rapidly expanded since the millennium's start, becoming pivotal nodes in long-distance aviation.
"It is the pivot point for passengers that arrive from Europe and North America… who are scheduled to connect onwards on another flight to Australia, South East Asia, Singapore, Hong Kong or the Indian subcontinent," explained John Grant, senior analyst at OAG.
"It is a hugely efficient, very effective operation that sees 90-100 flights arriving in a one-hour time window and then departing somewhere else an hour or two later."
This model has also significantly influenced long-haul travel costs.
"Competition drove down prices, and the Gulf carriers were a competitive game changer," Charlton said. "They added capacity to long-haul markets, they created long-haul markets… so of course they drove airfares down."
However, the Middle East conflict has disrupted this system, according to Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, a Middle East expert at the Baker Institute in Texas. He warns that a prolonged conflict could deter travelers from using Gulf hubs and alter airline operations long-term.
"Of course the business model is going to be called into question the longer it goes on," Ulrichsen said. "If people don't feel secure about travelling because they feel they'll get stuck, or that at any time the airport might be closed because of a drone, even if it's intercepted, that will do a lot of damage."
Why Fares Are Likely to Rise
The critical issue is the extent of damage to the Gulf's reputation as a global aviation focal point and whether its model will suffer lasting harm.
Charlton believes the duration of the conflict is decisive. If it ends swiftly, Gulf carriers can quickly regain market share by flooding it with low-cost fares.
However, if the conflict persists, passengers will increasingly seek alternative routes through hubs like Singapore, Bangkok, Hong Kong, or Tokyo.
The long-term reduction in Gulf airline capacity would inevitably push fares upward.
"Did the Gulf carriers cause lower fares? Yes they did. Take Gulf carriers out of the equation, air fares are going to go up, as sure as eggs are eggs," Charlton stated.
European airlines have already adjusted schedules and added flights to bypass Gulf hubs. British Airways, for example, has increased weekly services to Bangkok and Singapore, while Lufthansa and Air France KLM have also expanded Asian routes.
Nevertheless, Willie Walsh, Director General of the International Air Transport Association (IATA), asserts that European carriers lack the capacity to replace Gulf airlines, which account for 9.5% of global capacity.
"There is no way the capacity provided by carriers in the Gulf can be replaced by European carriers," Walsh said at a Paris event in mid-March, adding that he expects Gulf aviation to recover swiftly once the conflict subsides.
The End of the Gulf Dream?
The Gulf model's future has been questioned previously, notably during the Covid-19 pandemic, when some experts doubted the agility of carriers reliant on long-haul routes and large aircraft fleets. However, recovery was rapid, with Emirates, Etihad, and Qatar Airways posting strong profits in recent years.
"The aviation industry has seen Sars, it's seen Covid, it's seen geopolitical events in various parts of the world," Grant said. "It's seen stock market crashes, and it bounces back."
Nonetheless, much is at stake beyond aviation. Dubai, in particular, has evolved from a transit point into a significant business and tourism hub.
"The Gulf states have always had very strong oil and gas sectors, but diversification has always been a key priority for their leadership," Hogan explained. "With the ability to create aviation hubs, there was a major move in that diversification, because of the catalytic effect of aviation."
Ulrichsen agrees, noting that the UAE has become a desirable location for living, working, and business, with much of this appeal rooted in Dubai's attractiveness.
"The United Arab Emirates, he believes, has established itself as 'a place where people aspirationally want to go and live and work and do business. And so much of that model is based on the attractiveness of Dubai'."
However, this prosperity could be jeopardized if air traffic fails to rebound swiftly, with the tourism sector particularly vulnerable.
"My intuition is this will have a lasting impact… because of the safety perception you have in your mind," said Johannes Thomas, CEO of travel specialist Trivago. He estimates it may take "maybe two to three years" to overcome these safety concerns fully.
Hogan remains optimistic.
"This is a major crisis, but it will be resolved at a point in time," he said. "I've seen it over the years. Some people in the early days may be apprehensive, but travellers will come back.
"I'm very bullish about what the Gulf has to offer."
Undoubtedly, the Middle East conflict has delivered a significant blow to Gulf carriers and their hubs. The region is now likely to be approached with caution by tourists and business travelers alike.
Restoring confidence and overcoming reputational damage will only begin once hostilities subside. If the Gulf can resume its role as a global aviation junction, the industry may continue largely as before. Otherwise, the consequences for long-haul aviation worldwide could be profound.
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