US Strategy in Venezuela vs. Iran
The CIA tracked the leader of an oil-rich, US-opposing country to a heavily guarded compound in the capital surrounded by mountains. That leader was then removed from power through a decisive US military operation, followed by the installation of a more compliant successor aligned with Washington's interests.
This approach was applied in Venezuela, where President Nicolás Maduro was ousted before dawn on 3 January. After special forces captured Maduro and his vice-president, Delcy Rodríguez, a previously unlikely pro-US government emerged in a country whose leaders had long condemned "Yankee" imperialism.
Rodríguez expressed gratitude on X, stating,
"I thank President [Trump] for the kind willingness of his government to work together,"
marking her most explicit show of submission since Maduro's fall.
Three months post-Maduro, former President Donald Trump appears eager to replicate this model in Iran following the killing of its supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in Tehran during a joint Israeli-US operation targeting his base.
Trump told Axios,
"I have to be involved in the appointment [of his successor], like with Delcy in Venezuela,"
and to the New York Times,
"What we did in Venezuela, I think, is … the perfect scenario."
A State Department official described Trump's approach as "decapitate and delegate," managing regimes remotely without deploying US troops.
Challenges in Applying the Venezuela Model to Iran
Experts specializing in South America and the Middle East express skepticism about the feasibility of applying the Venezuelan strategy to Tehran, located 7,000 miles away.
Benjamin Gedan, former South America director on the White House National Security Council and current director of the Stimson Center Latin America program, noted,
"Turning Iran into a pliable kind of puppet regime is much less practical than in Venezuela where [even under Maduro] … the government was already inclined to work with the US, its historic partner for energy and the key player in the region."
He added,
"This idea that after Venezuela the US could go around the world intervening and installing a puppet figure wherever our aircraft carrier weighs anchor, it’s a sort of silly idea."
Iranian officials are expected to reject Trump's demand to participate in selecting their next leader, viewing it as blatant interference. The country holds deep-seated resentment toward foreign meddling by powers such as Britain, Russia, and the US.
The 1979 revolution that established the current Islamic regime was partly driven by nationalist backlash against perceived foreign intervention. The then pro-Western monarch, Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, was widely seen as an American puppet.
Anti-American sentiment, epitomized by the revolutionary slogan "Marg bar Amrika" (Death to America), remains central to the regime's ideology since Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini labeled the US "the great Satan." Tehran and other Iranian cities prominently display slogans and murals expressing hostility toward the US.
Trump's insistence on involvement is further complicated by the absence of diplomatic relations between the US and Iran for 46 years, unlike Venezuela, with which the US maintained ties until 2019. US-Iran relations were severed in 1980 after revolutionaries seized the US embassy in Tehran and held 52 American diplomats hostage.
Expert Opinions on Trump's Iran Strategy
Alex Vatanka, head of the Iran program at the Middle East Institute in Washington DC, described Trump's attempt to influence Iran's leadership selection as
"beyond delusional"
and questioned whether Trump has a viable plan to replicate the Venezuelan scenario.
Vatanka explained,
"Regime change would have been much easier than converting existing Shia militant Islamists to the Maga movement, which is basically what he is asking for."
He acknowledged that some individuals within Khamenei's inner circle might cooperate with foreign intelligence, but emphasized the need for a clear strategy:
"You need to decide who inside the regime you can work with. Then – together with that group – you either convince the others who are fighting right now to co-opt them, or you help the Americans kill them.
That way someone can emerge as the top man and do what Rodríguez is doing in Venezuela … But I have seen nothing to suggest to me that that level thinking has gone into what the US is doing right now. They might decide to pull out, saying: ‘We killed Khamenei, there are no nukes left, the missile launchers are destroyed.’
It’s open warfare, and in such a situation, it becomes even harder for anyone who is left in the regime to want to suggest that they’re willing to work with the US … They’ll be killed before they get out of bed the following day."
Naysan Rafati, senior Iran analyst at the International Crisis Group, noted that while the US and some regime insiders may share an interest in continuity, this risks alienating most Iranians, who remain angered by the violent suppression of recent protests that resulted in thousands of deaths.
He said,
"Even if the system has a shrinking base of ideological adherents, those adherents probably feel that this is the endgame if they don’t band together. So you may have a rallying of the wagons."
Rafati added,
"The neatest outcome for Washington is securing change within continuity – finding a partner that can quickly forge a critical mass of the Iranian system on terms the US can live with.
But that ambition faces two challenges: finding enough voices within the regime to accept change, and leaving many Iranians disaffected from continuity."
Role of the Revolutionary Guards and Regional Implications
Experts believe the decisive influence over Iran’s next leader lies with the Revolutionary Guards, which control the military and significant economic sectors.
South America specialists interpret Trump’s desire to replicate the "Delcy model" as stemming from confidence gained by Washington’s apparent success in appropriating parts of Maduro’s authoritarian regime.
Gedan remarked,
"You had no loss of aircraft, no loss of US service members, you got a government that had been portrayed to him at least as being implacably hostile, that’s now very accommodating. You have a country with immense natural resources [that as Trump sees it] are newly available to the United States."
However, Gedan cautioned that Iran’s greater distance and stronger defenses complicate the situation, and it remains premature to assess the long-term success of the Venezuelan strategy in South America.
He predicted,
"A year from now, if the US navy is not still sitting in the Caribbean, the Venezuelans, little by little, might feel like they have some breathing room all of a sudden and some autonomy again."
The ongoing conflict in the Middle East could also benefit Maduro’s successors as they aim to outlast Trump and extend their 27-year rule.
Gedan concluded,
"Their plan is not to be a puppet regime forever. Their plan is to hope the US moves on."
