Ceasefire Celebrated in Beirut
At midnight, the commencement of the ceasefire in Beirut was marked by gunfire and fireworks. Throughout the morning, jubilant crowds gathered along routes leading to southern Lebanon, the stronghold of Hezbollah, playing revolutionary music and waving the group's yellow flag as they began returning to areas from which they had been displaced by the conflict.
Details of the Ceasefire and Its Impact
The ceasefire, initially set for 10 days, follows six weeks of intense fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, the Lebanese Shia Muslim militia and political party. This pause in hostilities offers some relief to a nation deeply affected by the war.
Lebanese health authorities report that over 2,100 people have died, and more than one million individuals—approximately one in five of Lebanon's population—have been displaced, resulting in a significant humanitarian crisis.
Indicators such as mattresses atop cars and families traveling on motorbikes reveal ongoing movement, though many displaced persons are not returning permanently. In certain areas, destruction is so severe that residents have no homes to return to, and some towns and villages near the border remain under Israeli control.
Situation in Hezbollah-Controlled Areas
In Dahieh, the Hezbollah-controlled southern suburbs of Beirut, the streets were relatively quiet. This area suffered heavy bombardment by Israel during the conflict, with numerous residential buildings reduced to rubble.
Along Beirut's waterfront, hundreds of displaced families residing in makeshift tents expressed apprehension about returning to their previous homes.
Unresolved Issues in the Ceasefire Agreement
The ceasefire, announced by US President Donald Trump, leaves several critical questions unanswered.
Firstly, it does not address the withdrawal of Israeli forces from southern Lebanon, raising concerns that parts of the country may remain under occupation post-conflict. Israeli officials have stated their intention to establish a "security buffer zone" several miles deep, potentially preventing many residents from returning to these areas.
Secondly, the status of Hezbollah's arsenal remains contentious. Disarmament is a demand from the US, Israel, and many Lebanese citizens who accuse Hezbollah of serving Iranian interests and involving Lebanon in avoidable conflicts.
Conversely, Hezbollah supporters argue the group provides essential protection in a state perceived as weak. To date, Hezbollah has declined to engage in discussions regarding the future of its weapons.
Hezbollah's Stance on Disarmament
In a rare interview with the BBC, Wafiq Safa, a senior member of Hezbollah's political council, emphatically stated the group would "never, ever" disarm. He further asserted the inseparability of Hezbollah and Iran, describing their relationship as "two souls in one body."
"There can be no Hezbollah without Iran, and no Iran without Hezbollah," he said.
Government Influence and Regional Dynamics
The Lebanese government wields minimal, if any, influence over Hezbollah. President Joseph Aoun has indicated that disarmament cannot be imposed by force, warning of potential violence, and has suggested that negotiations with Hezbollah are necessary. Analysts believe that, given Iran's involvement, decisions regarding Hezbollah's weapons are more likely to be made in Tehran than in Beirut.
Potential for Continued Conflict
According to the ceasefire terms, Israel may continue military actions in Lebanon citing security concerns. This raises the possibility of a return to the pre-conflict situation, during which Israel conducted near-daily strikes against targets and individuals allegedly linked to Hezbollah despite a ceasefire agreement from November 2024. During that period, Hezbollah remained largely silent.
Prospects for Normalization Between Israel and Lebanon
President Trump appears to view the ceasefire as a potential starting point for normalizing relations between Israel and Lebanon, a subject that remains divisive within Lebanon.
The two countries have technically been at war since 1948 and lack diplomatic relations. Given ongoing Israeli occupation of parts of Lebanon and Hezbollah's refusal to disarm, significant progress toward normalization seems unlikely at present.
