Putin’s Visit Highlights Strengthening Sino-Russian Ties
Russian President Vladimir Putin is scheduled to arrive in Beijing on Tuesday for a state visit, occurring just four days after former US President Donald Trump departed China.
According to Chinese state media, this marks Putin’s 25th visit to China, underscoring Beijing’s increasing confidence as a global diplomatic hub. The visit also reflects the close relationship between Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping, who have met over 40 times—significantly more than Xi’s meetings with any Western leaders.
“Hosting two of the most powerful leaders in the world in a matter of days shows China’s growing confidence in its place and standing in the world,” said William Yang, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group.
He added that Xi “likely wants to remind Trump that Beijing has other solid and robust relationships that it can count on, so Washington can’t easily isolate or harm Beijing if it tries to”.
Context of Putin’s Visit Amid Challenges
Putin’s visit comes at a challenging time in his tenure, as his domestic image faces strain due to limited progress in the Ukraine conflict this year. Russia’s worsening economic situation has increased its reliance on China, shifting the Kremlin’s portrayal of their partnership from one of equals to a more asymmetrical relationship.
On the eve of his visit, Putin published a statement praising the bilateral relationship, describing it as having reached an “unprecedented level.” He highlighted the surge in trade between the two nations, the predominance of rouble and yuan in settlements instead of the US dollar, and mutual visa-free travel policies for citizens of both countries.
China’s foreign ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun stated on Tuesday: “The friendship between China and Russia will be further deepened and will be more deeply rooted in people’s hearts” under the strategic guidance of Xi and Putin.
This year marks the 30th anniversary of the strategic partnership agreement between Beijing and Moscow, as well as the 25th anniversary of the “treaty of good-neighbourliness and friendly cooperation.”
Putin’s emphasis on non-dollar transactions illustrates the efforts by both countries to build resilience against Western sanctions, which depend heavily on the dominance of the US dollar.
China has not complied with Western sanctions on Russia and has purchased over $367 billion worth of Russian fossil fuels since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, according to data from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air.
Energy Cooperation and Strategic Projects
Observers are closely monitoring whether Putin and Xi will finalize agreements to deepen energy cooperation. A prominent project under consideration is the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline, a 1,600-mile (2,600 km) natural gas pipeline that would increase Russia’s gas exports to China by 50 billion cubic meters. The pipeline would traverse Mongolia and is viewed by the Kremlin as essential to offsetting lost European markets.
Additional overland energy supplies from Russia could reduce China’s dependence on the Strait of Hormuz, which has been destabilized by the US-Iran conflict. However, this may also increase China’s reliance on Russia at a time when Beijing aims to enhance its energy self-sufficiency.
Putin’s Role in China-US Relations
Putin has played a background role in Xi’s nuanced relationship with the US. During Xi’s recent private tour of his residence in Beijing with Trump, Xi noted that Putin was among the few foreign leaders invited to the Zhongnanhai compound, often called China’s Kremlin. Trump responded with a simple,
“Good.”
Western Sanctions and Diplomatic Tensions
China has also faced Western sanctions linked to the Ukraine war. Recently, the Chinese embassy in the UK lodged “stern representations” after London added two Chinese entities to its Russian sanctions list.
Western nations have criticized Beijing for its continued economic support of Russia and for exporting dual-use equipment with potential military applications.
Ukraine was not extensively discussed in the official summaries of the recent US-China bilateral meeting between Trump and Xi. However, the Financial Times reported that, according to sources familiar with the US assessment, Xi told Trump that Putin might eventually regret the war. China’s foreign ministry has denied these reports.
If accurate, Xi’s remarks likely indicate China’s growing recognition of Russia’s difficulties both militarily and domestically. The conflict in Ukraine has largely reached a stalemate, while Ukrainian long-range drone and missile strikes have caused significant damage to Russian energy infrastructure and military sites.
Domestic Pressures in Russia
On Tuesday, a Russian deputy from Siberia publicly called for the “swift conclusion” of the war, warning that Russia’s economy “would not withstand a prolonged continuation of the special military operation.” This rare statement acknowledges the significant strain the conflict is imposing on the country.
Additional research by Yu-chen Li
