Welsh NHS Likely to Miss Waiting List Targets Before Election
The Welsh government's critical pre-election health targets appear unlikely to be met, according to analysis by BBC Wales.
These targets include commitments to reduce waiting lists by 200,000 patients, eliminate waits of two years or more, and ensure no patient waits longer than eight weeks for diagnostic tests.
Despite significant progress, analysis indicates the health service will probably fall short of these goals, which were announced by Health Secretary Jeremy Miles in April 2025.
Official figures, due for release on Thursday, will provide voters with a final overview of NHS Wales' performance before the election on 7 May, during a campaign where NHS issues have been prominent.
The monthly statistics will reveal waiting list lengths and highlight ongoing challenges in emergency care and cancer services, which are also failing to meet key performance standards.
In a speech to health leaders in April last year, Miles declared that addressing waiting times would be his "number one priority," pledging to reduce the overall waiting list size by March 2026 and restore it to pre-pandemic levels.
The targets were supported by an additional £120 million in funding, aimed at increasing outpatient appointments, diagnostic tests, and treatments, including over 20,000 cataract operations.
To meet the first target, the Welsh NHS would need to achieve a reduction in planned treatment waiting numbers within a single month greater than any previously recorded, according to BBC analysis.
The substantial number of patients waiting two years or more in north Wales presents a significant obstacle to meeting the second target.
Approximately 69% of the current Welsh total of two-year-plus waits are within the Betsi Cadwaladr health board area; Swansea Bay reports no patients waiting that long.
Last autumn, the head of NHS Wales acknowledged that issues "in the north of the country" made it unlikely that the two-year wait target would be met across all regions of Wales.
Meanwhile, the latest data shows that at the start of this year, over 48,000 patients had waited more than eight weeks for diagnostic tests, which is 10,000 more than when Miles set the goal of reducing this figure to zero.
The Labour Welsh government's decision last autumn to publish provisional data alongside official statistics prompted opposition parties to claim it was attempting to improve its image ahead of the election.
The government denied these allegations, with Miles asserting it was the "right approach" to provide the public with as much information as possible.
Official data has a seven-week delay and would not have been available in time for the Senedd election on 7 May.
The provisional statistics released on Thursday cover March.
Without these provisional figures, the government would have been unable to demonstrate whether its targets could be achieved before the election.
Labour has previously faced criticism from opponents for failing to meet targets outlined in its April 2022 Covid recovery plan.
Its overall NHS record after 27 years in power has also been heavily scrutinized, and Thursday's figures are expected to be closely examined by politicians from all parties.
Health and social care spending accounts for more than half of the Welsh government's approximate £28 billion budget, and the NHS consistently ranks among the top three issues most important to voters.
Overall waiting lists have declined for eight consecutive months, according to official figures.
In January, waiting lists fell by a record 28,000 to 713,048 patient pathways.
This means that regardless of which party forms the next Welsh government, they will inherit a waiting list that is decreasing but remains higher than pre-pandemic levels.
What Are the Parties' NHS Promises?
The NHS features prominently in party manifestos ahead of the election.
Labour pledges to meet the 26-week waiting time target by the end of the next Senedd term and proposes a £4 billion hospital building programme.
The Conservatives plan to declare a "health emergency" to prioritize resources and aim to clear waiting time backlogs by 2030.
Plaid Cymru commits to delivering 10 new surgical hubs.
Plaid leader Rhun ap Iorwerth stated earlier this year that voters should not expect immediate changes to waiting lists within the first 100 days of a Plaid government.
He later expressed a desire to eliminate waits exceeding two years within 12 months and reduce the overall waiting list to pre-pandemic levels by the end of the parliamentary term.
Reform proposes launching a comprehensive emergency action plan that includes expanding surgical hubs.
The Liberal Democrats intend to invest an additional £300 million in social care to alleviate NHS pressures and are willing to raise income tax by one penny to fund this.
The Greens advocate shifting investment towards prevention and primary and community care to reduce hospital pressures over the long term.
Challenges in Emergency and Cancer Care
The effort to reduce waiting lists occurs amid an NHS struggling to meet key performance targets in urgent and cancer care.
February figures revealed that only 63.7% of patients spent less than four hours in emergency departments from arrival until admission, transfer, or discharge, well below the 95% target, which has never been met.
In cancer care, January data showed that 57% of patients began their first definitive treatment within 62 days of suspicion, significantly under the 75% target.
The Royal College of Surgeons in Wales stated that planned care services "have never fully recovered from the impact of Covid-19, leaving patients facing long waits for care, and staff working under sustained pressure."
"These combined challenges make clear that longer-term, system-wide change is essential" to prevent long treatment waits from becoming "entrenched."
The college also noted that Welsh surgeons report higher levels of theatre access difficulties, burnout, and stress compared to colleagues elsewhere in the UK.
It emphasized that the next Welsh government must prioritize surgical hubs to address the waiting list backlog.
"A minimum of four" surgical hubs should be established at "existing sites" within the first year of the next government taking office, the college recommended.
