A rivalry renewed - Sabalenka and Osaka meet again
Aryna Sabalenka (left) and Naomi Osaka are set to face each other for the fourth time in 2026.
Both players share notable similarities: each has won four Grand Slam titles, reached the top of the world rankings, and established their reputations primarily on hard courts. They emerged on the WTA Tour around the same period, yet their career trajectories have differed significantly. While one achieved early success, the other experienced a longer wait before reaching major milestones.
After their initial meeting at the 2018 US Open, where Osaka secured her first major title, the two did not compete against each other again until 2026. Recently, they have met three times within three months, and on Sunday, they will contest a high-profile fourth-round match at Wimbledon.
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'I had the feeling she would win a Slam'
Osaka broke down in tears after defeating Sabalenka to reach her first major quarter-final at the 2018 US Open.
When Sabalenka and Osaka first met nearly eight years ago in New York, both were 20 years old and rapidly ascending the rankings. Both have acknowledged that their fourth-round encounter, which Osaka won 6-3, 2-6, 6-4, was a pivotal moment in their careers.
"I felt like we both were kind of upcoming, [the] next generation," said top seed Sabalenka.
"When she won that match, I had a feeling she is going to win a Slam."
Sabalenka, who had been a break ahead in the deciding set, was correct. Five days later, Osaka defeated Serena Williams to become the first Japanese player to win a major title.
In the following 28 months, Osaka secured three additional Grand Slam titles, while Sabalenka did not claim any. Their careers then diverged.
Osaka took a brief hiatus from tennis in 2021 to focus on her mental health, followed by 15 months of maternity leave after the birth of her daughter Shai in July 2023. During Osaka's absence, Sabalenka achieved her breakthrough by winning the 2023 Australian Open, her first Grand Slam title.
"Obviously [we have a] different story," Sabalenka said after her third-round victory over Jelena Ostapenko.
"She went through different things. I went through different things. I feel like we both were completely different players and people."
'Every time it's a battle'
Although Osaka won their initial meeting, Sabalenka has prevailed in all their encounters this year.
At Indian Wells in March, Sabalenka secured a 6-2, 6-4 victory in 80 minutes, delivering a strong serving performance. She recorded eight aces, committed no double faults, and saved the two break points she faced, ultimately winning the tournament.
Osaka posed a greater challenge on the clay courts of Madrid, where she dominated the first-set tiebreak and gained a break lead in the second set. However, Sabalenka elevated her level to come back and win the match.
At the French Open last month, Sabalenka again demonstrated superior serving. Osaka landed just 53% of her first serves and was broken four times, while Sabalenka won 83% of points on her first serve, aided by 12 aces.
"It's been a great rivalry. Every time I'm enjoying playing her, it's a battle, it's high-level matches. Super excited to play her," Sabalenka said.
Osaka said she has learned from each encounter, adding: "She's the number one player in the world.
"If there is someone I had to lose to, I would pick that ranking position."
'I don't fear the grass any more'
Five weeks after the French Open, they meet again at Wimbledon, a surface that has challenged both players.
Between them, they have won 31 WTA Tour titles, yet none have been on grass.
Osaka reached the fourth round at Wimbledon for the first time in her career after a decisive win over Daria Kasatkina on Friday. This continued a positive grass-court season for the 28-year-old, who reached her first grass final at the Bad Homburg Open last month, although she retired early in the second set against Karolina Muchova due to injury.
A key improvement in Osaka's game has been an increase in her average first-serve speed, rising from 105 mph at Wimbledon last year to 109 mph this year. This enhancement has made her serve more effective and enabled her to take the ball early on the forehand side, asserting control with flat, powerful groundstrokes.
"I've been doing really well on grass this year. My confidence is pretty high," Osaka said.
"I don't fear it too much any more. When I was younger I slipped pretty bad and ever since then I was scared of moving on grass.
"It's taken a long time to get comfortable but I would say I am at that point now."
Sabalenka has experienced more success at Wimbledon but has yet to reach the final, making it the only Grand Slam where she has not done so. This year, she has appeared comfortable on grass, as demonstrated by her straight-sets victory over Ostapenko, who has won two grass titles, committing only six unforced errors.
"The plan is to get better every day and do a little bit better than I usually do on this beautiful grass," Sabalenka said after her third-round win.
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