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Will Monaco Favor Ferrari Over Mercedes, McLaren, and Red Bull? F1 Insights

Ahead of the 2026 Monaco GP, 's Andrew Benson examines why Ferrari may excel at Monaco, Kimi Antonelli's championship lead, Alonso's retirement issue, FIA governance concerns, and circuit safety amid evolving car performance.

·7 min read
Lewis Hamilton gives a thumbs up on the podium in Canada

Lewis Hamilton's Monaco Success

Lewis Hamilton has secured three victories at the Monaco Grand Prix, winning in 2008 with McLaren and in 2016 and 2019 with Mercedes.

2026 Formula 1 European Season Kickoff

The European segment of the 2026 Formula 1 season commences with round six at the Monaco Grand Prix this weekend.

Teenager Kimi Antonelli leads the drivers' championship by 43 points over Mercedes teammate George Russell after his fourth consecutive win in Canada two weeks ago.

Before the Monte Carlo race, F1 correspondent Andrew Benson addresses your recent questions.

Why Monaco May Suit Ferrari More Than Other Teams

Andrew explains:

Mercedes has dominated the 2026 season, winning every Grand Prix from pole position except for the Miami sprint, where Lando Norris claimed pole and victory for McLaren.

Monaco is seen as a potential turning point favoring Ferrari due to the characteristics of the track, car, engine, and drivers.

Monaco is the least power-sensitive circuit on the calendar, emphasizing cornering performance at low and medium speeds over engine power.

Ferrari's car has demonstrated exceptional cornering speed this year, arguably the fastest, which benefits Monaco's layout.

The Ferrari engine offers strong low-speed acceleration, contributing to good race starts, but lacks top-end power. This suits Monaco where engine responsiveness is more valuable than outright power.

Driver-wise, Charles Leclerc excels at Monaco, having qualified on pole three times, second twice, and third once in the past six years.

Lewis Hamilton also traditionally performs well at Monaco and is in improved form this year after difficulties in 2024 and 2025.

Leclerc and Hamilton are tied 4-4 in qualifying head-to-head this season, with Leclerc holding a slight average advantage of 0.037 seconds.

Combining these factors, Ferrari is considered a strong contender for victory this year.

However, Ferrari's average qualifying deficit to Mercedes is 0.447 seconds, a significant margin to overcome solely based on track characteristics.

McLaren and Red Bull should not be discounted. McLaren showed speed in Miami and performs well in low-speed corners, with Lando Norris having won Monaco from pole last year. Max Verstappen remains consistently outstanding.

This weekend could be the closest competition of the year so far.

Classic Monaco Grand Prix images through the years

Is Kimi Antonelli Overhyped Due to Luck?

Gavin asks: Is Kimi Antonelli's lead inflated by fortunate circumstances such as strategy calls and rivals' mistakes?

Kimi Antonelli has indeed benefited from some luck this year, contributing to his 43-point lead over Mercedes teammate George Russell after five races.

Russell's engine failure while leading in Canada was particularly detrimental to his championship challenge.

The timing of the safety car in Japan allowed Antonelli to take the lead, Russell faced technical issues in China qualifying, and McLaren's strategy errors in Miami enabled Antonelli to undercut Norris.

Nonetheless, Antonelli has significantly elevated his performance, fulfilling the potential Mercedes has long recognized in him, establishing himself as a legitimate championship leader.

In China, Antonelli experienced the same front wing issue on his final qualifying lap as Russell did. In Japan, Mercedes believed he was on course to lead regardless of the safety car due to his pace on medium tyres in clear air.

It is unreasonable to blame Antonelli for McLaren's strategic mistakes or Russell's mechanical failures.

Although Russell was leading in Canada before retiring, Antonelli was closely challenging and appeared faster, leaving the race outcome uncertain.

They are tied 4-4 in qualifying this season, with Antonelli slightly quicker on average by 0.074 seconds.

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Therefore, while luck has played a role, Antonelli's outstanding season against a highly capable rival is undeniable.

The championship is expected to have many twists ahead, and luck often balances out over a season, though exceptions exist, such as the 2016 Hamilton-Rosberg rivalry.

Mercedes Teammates Battle for Drivers' Championship

Fernando Alonso's Retirement in Canada: Clarifying the Issue

Ian asks: How could Fernando Alonso retire due to a loose seat, given the precision in F1 engineering?

The situation involved a misunderstanding. Alonso did not retire because of a loose seat but due to discomfort with his seating position.

"I felt increasingly uncomfortable. The position wasn't right and, since we were out of the points, far from the points zone, and with no threat of rain, we decided to put an end to the pain. We tried to adjust a few things last night, but it didn't work." – Fernando Alonso

Aston Martin's chief trackside officer Mike Krack explained the issue stemmed from a more reclined seating position this year, intended to lower the centre of gravity.

"He hasn't felt completely comfortable for a while now - never to the point of becoming a real obstacle, but it's like a pressure point that gets worse lap after lap, and I think we need to reconsider the seating position a bit.
With these cars, you always try to sit as low as possible, and if you look at how drivers have been sitting in recent years, the position has become increasingly more relaxed. Maybe we've gone a step too far, but it's something we need to look into." – Mike Krack

This issue is unrelated to Alonso's age.

The team plans to test solutions in Monaco, such as Alonso sitting slightly higher or adjusting the pedals.

Fernando Alonso and Aston Martin team-mate Lance Stroll are yet to score a point in the drivers' championship this year.

Fernando Alonso on track for Aston Martin in Canada
Image caption, Fernando Alonso and Aston Martin team-mate Lance Stroll are yet to score a point in the drivers' championship this year

FIA President Mohammed Ben Sulayem's Consolidation of Power

Phil asks: Why is there little public criticism of FIA President Mohammed Ben Sulayem's moves to extend his presidency indefinitely?

This question refers to recent reports revealing Ben Sulayem's efforts to remove presidential term limits from the FIA statutes.

These actions are part of a series of measures perceived by critics as attempts to consolidate power and undermine governance and transparency within the FIA.

has extensively reported on these developments over the past two years, which include removing checks and balances, dismissing personnel following disagreements with Ben Sulayem, and the absence of opposition in last year's election due to restrictive candidacy rules predating his presidency.

The FIA maintains it is a democratic organisation committed to good governance, stating it has strengthened corporate governance policies since 2021 to ensure robust and transparent rules and processes.

All governance changes were approved by member clubs with significant majorities.

Ben Sulayem's presidency and election process are currently challenged in French courts by former racing driver Laura Villars.

There has been notable unease within F1 regarding Ben Sulayem's conduct since early in his term, with little change observed.

However, many in F1 hesitate to speak publicly due to fear of repercussions.

Moreover, teams and F1 management have no authority over FIA operations; only FIA member clubs can influence the presidency, and voting heavily favors Ben Sulayem.

2026 Monaco Grand Prix Schedule

5-7 June with the race at 14:00 BST on Sunday.

Live commentary is available on BBC Radio 5 Live and BBC Radio 5 Sports Extra 2 and 3, with live text updates on the website and app.

Should Circuits Be Updated for Increased Car Performance and Safety?

John asks: Given the increased performance, power deployment, and grip of the latest F1 cars, should some circuits be improved to reflect this and ensure driver safety?

The 2026 F1 cars exhibit faster acceleration due to enhanced electrical power-unit components.

However, their total engine power remains similar to last year's, approximately 1,000bhp, and they have significantly reduced grip levels compared to previous seasons.

Downforce has been substantially decreased this year, resulting in lower performance in high-speed corners relative to last year.

The FIA and F1 continually work to enhance circuit safety, implementing changes annually.

Car performance is also considered, with regulations adjusted to prevent speeds from becoming unbalanced.

Get in Touch

Send your questions for F1 correspondent Andrew Benson.

This article was sourced from bbc

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