Scotland have three points from two group games
With 32 of 48 teams advancing to the knockout rounds of this expanded World Cup, it is more difficult to be eliminated than to qualify.
However, Scotland are competing in one of the tournament's most challenging groups alongside Morocco and Brazil, and may need to rely on securing a spot as one of the best third-placed teams to progress.
They have the opportunity to beat Brazil on Wednesday (23:00 BST) to secure a top-two finish in Group C and qualify automatically, while a draw would almost guarantee their progression.
Nonetheless, facing the five-time World Cup winners in Miami is unlikely to be straightforward.
examines Scotland's current situation and the likelihood of advancing if they finish third.
What do Scotland need?
Scotland are in a relatively comfortable position heading into the final group matches.
The eight third-placed teams with the best records will avoid elimination, and Steve Clarke's side currently sit second in that mini-league.
The teams presently outside the top eight are the Czech Republic, Ecuador, Bosnia-Herzegovina, and Senegal.
Scotland have accumulated three points after two games and hold a goal difference of zero—the same as Sweden, who top the third-place table.
However, Scotland face the risk of a heavy defeat by Brazil, which would negatively impact their goal difference.
If teams in the third-place table have equal points, rankings will be decided by goal difference.
How crucial could goal difference be?
According to Opta, a team finishing third with a goal difference of zero has a 95% chance of advancing to the knockout stage.
A one-goal loss to Brazil, resulting in a goal difference of -1, would reduce Scotland's chances to 84%.
Losing by larger margins would further decrease their probability of progression: 63% for -2, 42% for -3, 27% for -4, and 19% for -5.
Why Scotland can't play for draw or narrow defeat against Brazil
What are Clarke's big calls for Brazil? And who would you pick?
Does it matter if Scotland lose and still make history?
The perils of playing final group game early
One frustration for Scotland is that by playing their final group game on Wednesday, they will face a long wait to learn their fate.
If they lose to Brazil, they might not know their qualification status until about 05:00 BST on Sunday when Group J concludes.
This timing places Scotland at a disadvantage, as teams playing later in the week will have more information about the results needed to qualify.
Those teams may be able to play for a draw or limit the scale of a defeat to protect their goal difference.
Have World Cup changes made final group stage games unfair?
The results Scotland fans may need to look out for
If Scotland lose and finish with three points, several other results will influence their chances—they will want as many groups as possible to have two teams finishing with fewer than three points.
In Group A, if Mexico beats the Czech Republic and South Korea defeats South Africa, the third-placed team would have one point.
The next best scenario would be a large South Africa win, leaving South Korea in third with three points but a poor goal difference.
Wins for South Africa and the Czech Republic would be unfavorable for Scotland, leaving the third-place finisher with four points.
One of the few games occurring before Scotland face Brazil that impacts Scotland’s standing is in Group B, where Bosnia-Herzegovina and Qatar meet three hours earlier. A draw would leave both sides with two points.
Scotland would also want the USA, group winners, to at least secure a point against Turkey to keep Turkey out of contention.
Ecuador and Curacao each have one point and play Germany and Ivory Coast respectively. Failure to win would mean the third-placed team cannot surpass Scotland’s three points.
In Group F, Scotland will hope second-placed Japan defeats third-placed Sweden convincingly. A point for Sweden would leave the third-placed team with at least four points.
The key fixture in Group G for Scotland is Egypt versus Iran. An Egypt win would ensure the third-placed team finishes with fewer than three points.
Similarly, in Group H, Scotland fans will support Spain to beat Uruguay so the third-placed team can only reach two points, while in Group I, a draw between Senegal and Iraq would leave the third-placed team with just one point.
In Group J, Austria and Algeria are second and third respectively with three points and face each other in their final group game. Scotland would want to avoid a draw in this match. They would also prefer Argentina to avoid defeat against Jordan, who currently have zero points.
DR Congo and Uzbekistan compete for third place in Group K. A win for Uzbekistan would give them three points, but with a goal difference of -7, they would require a large victory against DR Congo and a heavy Scotland loss to surpass Scotland in the standings.
In Group L, a point or more for Croatia against Ghana could be detrimental for Scotland, as it would leave the third-placed team with four points.
A large win for Ghana, combined with Panama failing to beat England, would be Scotland’s ideal mathematical scenario.
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