Understanding the Scottish Premiership Post-Split Fixture Decisions
It is that time of the year again when the Scottish Premiership divides into two groups of six teams, sparking immediate debate over which clubs benefit from the final five rounds of fixtures.
The allocation of these fixtures is not randomly generated by a computer. Instead, the Scottish Professional Football League (SPFL) makes the final decisions in consultation with broadcast rights holders, who seek the most appealing games for live television, and the police.
While the matchups themselves are predetermined, the venues and timings result from numerous factors that the SPFL must carefully consider. This process often exposes the league to accusations of bias, favoritism, and even conspiracy theories.
Following the announcement of the post-split fixtures on Tuesday, Hearts head coach Derek McInnes acknowledged that some supporters might be disappointed that the usual practice of awarding the league leaders a home game on the final day was not followed this season.
"The SPFL faces an impossible task to please all 12 clubs and their fans," McInnes said.
But how exactly are these fixtures decided?
Why is there a split and what is it?
Previously known as the Scottish Premier League, the top division consisted of 10 clubs, which allowed for a 36-game season with each team playing the others four times—an ideal format.
However, when the division expanded to 12 teams for the 2000-01 season, a 44-game campaign was considered too lengthy.
To address this, an innovative split system was introduced after teams had met three times. The league then divides into a top six and a bottom six, with each group playing five additional games amongst themselves.
This structure ensures the top six compete for the title and European qualification spots, while the bottom six battle to avoid the single automatic relegation place and the relegation/promotion playoff against a Championship side.
Upon releasing the fixtures, the SPFL highlighted that the split typically adds excitement, with clubs vying for a top-six position until the 33rd fixture. Although this season, Falkirk secured the final top-six spot with a game to spare.
However, dividing the league after 33 matches can also create certain anomalies.
Do all clubs play an equal number of home and away games?
Clubs play either 16 or 17 home games before the split, with a minimum of two and a maximum of three home fixtures after it.
Ideally, each club would have 19 home and 19 away games by the end of the season, but this balance is not always achievable. This is the second consecutive season featuring an imbalance.
When compiling the initial fixtures, the SPFL attempts to predict which clubs will finish in the top six and bottom six to minimize such disparities. However, this season, promoted Falkirk have exceeded expectations and currently sit in sixth place.
As a result, Falkirk will play 20 home games, while Livingston will have 18.
Although not ideal, the SPFL explained this approach was chosen to limit the extent of imbalance.
With Falkirk five points behind Hibernian, the additional home game is unlikely to influence European qualification. Similarly, Livingston having one fewer home game is less significant given their near-certain relegation.
The Scottish top flight has experienced a 20/18 home/away game split in nearly half of its seasons.
Does that cause any other imbalances?
This imbalance also means some teams face certain opponents three times at home and once away, or vice versa, which often leads to complaints.
Such fixture reversals have been necessary every season since the split's introduction in 2000-01. This season, there are four reversals in the top six.
Falkirk will host Rangers and Hibernian for a third time, while traveling to Celtic Park and Tynecastle for a third time.
In the bottom six, there are three reversals: Livingston will travel to Dundee and Dundee United for a third time, and Kilmarnock will host Dundee a third time.
When determining these reversals, the SPFL tries to avoid those that could significantly impact the title race, European qualification, or relegation battles.
They also seek to avoid reversing major city derbies and may consider how clubs have been affected by post-split fixtures in previous seasons.
What impact does TV have?
Live television coverage is another factor in fixture scheduling. McInnes expressed dissatisfaction that Hearts will not have a single traditional Saturday 15:00 kickoff after the split.
Premier Sports has announced three live post-split broadcasts, while Sky Sports confirmed six, with further selections for the final two rounds expected.
With Celtic versus Falkirk selected for live broadcast on Saturday, 25 April, the Rangers versus Motherwell match was moved to Sunday.
This change is due to Police Scotland's refusal to allow both Old Firm clubs to play at home on the same day.
But who will be at home on the final day?
McInnes expressed satisfaction that his unexpectedly leading Hearts remain in a three-way title race, with Rangers one point behind and Celtic two points further back.
However, he acknowledged some Hearts fans are unhappy about having to travel to Celtic Park on the final day, where only 600 visiting supporters are likely to be permitted against the reigning champions.
The SPFL stated that Celtic were awarded a home match on the final day partly because they have three home matches post-split, while Hearts and Rangers have only two each. They also cited "competing constraints and the most exciting title race in years making each fixture round very unpredictable."
So what constraints does the SPFL balance?
- The need for all clubs to finish home/away or away/home
- The number of home matches each club has already played before the split
- The requirement to avoid the two Dundee clubs, two Glasgow clubs, and two Edinburgh clubs playing at home on the same day
- The decision to schedule the second last fixtures on Wednesday, 13 May, with simultaneous kickoffs to allow equal recovery time, which ruled out that date for such fixtures
- City derbies are prohibited on the final day for public safety reasons
In a statement explaining the decisions, the SPFL said,
"We have a fantastic final day to look forward to with Celtic and Hearts facing off at Celtic Park, Rangers travelling to a Falkirk side that have been one of the success stories of the season and a potential battle for European spots at Easter Road."
