What Andy Burnham as PM Could Mean for Scotland’s Future

Andy Burnham is set to outline his vision for devolution and the economy, raising questions about his approach to Scotland amid ongoing independence debates and calls for further devolution.

Andy Burnham’s Vision for Devolution and the Economy

Andy Burnham is anticipated to present his vision for devolution and the economy on Monday. As his path to Number 10 Downing Street appears increasingly certain, questions remain about what his premiership could mean for Scotland.

Often referred to as "The King of the North," Burnham’s approach to Scotland and its governance will be closely scrutinized, especially amid ongoing disputes between the Scottish government and UK ministers over a potential second independence referendum.

Monday’s speech may provide further insight into his plans for Scotland, but it is expected that the current tensions surrounding the referendum issue will continue regardless of who occupies Number 10.

How Burnham responds to John Swinney’s demands for further devolution remains to be seen.

Further Devolution?

Burnham has not frequently addressed the issue of Scottish devolution in recent years. However, in a 2020 interview, he reflected on the topic amid the then-ongoing debates about a second EU referendum.

At that time, he expressed concern over repeated referendums, stating:

"You just can't keep having referendum after referendum."

He warned that such repeated votes, whether concerning Brexit or Scottish independence, prevent political divisions from healing.

Burnham has also publicly discussed the Barnett Formula, which determines the funding the Scottish government receives from Westminster.

Scottish figures close to Burnham do not anticipate any change in the UK government’s stance on a second referendum under his leadership. However, they believe he may be more effective in communicating that position than Sir Keir Starmer was.

As one Scottish Labour MP noted:

"Whether it's fair or not, the way you talk and handle yourself matters to people. You've only got a few seconds before someone swipes past the message you're trying to deliver."

There is optimism that Burnham’s experience working outside London will resonate with voters, suggesting he understands Scotland better than recent prime ministers.

It is likely that further devolution will be a central element of Burnham’s strategy for the UK's nations and regions.

Some aspects of increased devolution would require cooperation from Scottish government ministers. For example, Burnham may advocate for more mayors across the UK, including Scotland.

However, some of his allies suggest he could pursue devolution of UK powers directly to more local levels, potentially bypassing Holyrood.

For instance, while certain welfare areas are devolved to Holyrood, many remain under UK government control, such as job centres.

Those close to Burnham believe these areas could be extensively devolved, enabling different systems in Glasgow, Edinburgh, or the Highlands.

This approach is described as "devolution with a purpose" by a leader who appreciates the benefits of decision-making outside London.

A general view of the debating chamber at Holyrood. — Image caption, Andy Burnham has previously spoken about ditching the Barnett Formula which dictates how much funding the Scottish government gets from Westminster

Burnham’s previous statements regarding Scotland may require clarification. In 2024, he authored a book titled Head North: A Rallying Cry for a More Equal Britain, which outlines several radical policies, including abolishing party whipping and replacing the first-past-the-post voting system.

Whether these sweeping changes will be implemented remains uncertain.

In the book, Burnham also critiques the Barnett Formula, calling for it to be "torn up." He viewed it as unfair to English regions, though he did not suggest Scotland should lose funding. Instead, he advocated for a new system allocating funds to regions and nations based on social factors and levels of need.

Since then, his team has clarified that he has no plans to alter the Barnett Formula, and a spokesperson assured that Scotland will be "at the centre of any government he runs."

Political Opposition’s Perspective

With Burnham’s leadership increasingly likely, Scottish political opponents have voiced their views.

The Scottish National Party (SNP) has described him as "more of the same" and "shallow and ego-driven."

Privately, some SNP insiders acknowledge that Burnham appears to communicate more effectively and could improve Labour’s prospects in the short term.

However, there is a consensus that the fundamental challenges Burnham faces are similar to those confronting Sir Keir Starmer, and that economic constraints will limit his options.

Currently, there are no plans for Burnham to visit Scotland. His immediate focus is on retaining the Greater Manchester mayoralty for Labour in the upcoming election.

Nevertheless, he is scheduled to meet with Scottish MPs later this week. Following Labour’s poor performance in the recent Holyrood election, he will need to convince these MPs that he has a credible plan to rebuild support in Scotland.

While persuading MPs may be achievable, Burnham will face a more skeptical Scottish public if he reaches Downing Street.