Defence Investment Plan Published
The government has released the long-awaited Defence Investment Plan (DIP), with Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer describing the additional funding as a
"huge historic shift for our nation".
BBC Verify has examined the scale of the government's increased defence expenditure commitments in the coming years and assessed whether these will enable the UK to meet its pledged Nato spending targets.
Current UK Defence Spending
The Ministry of Defence's (MoD) total budget for the fiscal year 2026-27 is set at £68.3 billion, according to the DIP.
However, Nato-qualifying defence spending is a broader measure than the MoD's budget alone, as it also includes government expenditure on items such as military pensions.
Based on this wider measure, Nato estimated the UK's defence spending to be £70 billion in 2025, representing 2.4% of the UK's GDP for that year.
Government Spending Commitments
In February 2025, Sir Keir pledged to increase Nato-qualifying defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2027.
He further announced that by 2027, the activities of the UK's security and intelligence agencies would be classified as Nato-qualifying defence spending, which would raise spending to 2.6% of GDP by that year.
The prime minister also expressed a
"clear ambition"to elevate spending to 3% of GDP
"in the next parliament".
At the Nato summit in The Hague in June 2025, the UK and other member states committed to allocating 5% of GDP to defence and security by 2035, with 3.5% directed towards Nato-qualifying
"core defence".
The alliance agreed that the remaining 1.5% of GDP within the 5% target could be spent on
"protecting critical infrastructure, defending networks, ensuring civil preparedness and resilience, innovating, and strengthening the defence industrial base".
Sir Keir stated on Tuesday that the DIP measures
"take us to 4.2% under that commitment".
Additional Defence Investment in the DIP
Former Defence Secretary John Healey, who resigned on 11 June, indicated that the DIP he reviewed only committed to raising Nato-qualifying defence spending to 2.68% of GDP by 2030.
He criticized this level as inadequate
"to defend the country at this time of rising threats"and argued that the government should commit to 3% of GDP for defence by 2030 rather than in the next parliament.
The DIP itself states that
"based on latest projections", UK defence spending will reach 2.7% of GDP by 2027-28.
It does not provide detailed year-by-year projections beyond this but notes that defence spending
"by the end of the decade will be 2.7% of GDP", implying no planned increase in the proportion of GDP spent on defence between 2027 and 2030.
The 2.7% figure represents a slight increase of approximately 0.02% of GDP compared to the original DIP, equating to an additional £600 million in 2030 in current terms.
Following the DIP's publication, Healey posted on X that a
"target date"is necessary to achieve the 3% spending goal and that a
"clear plan"is required for the UK to reach Nato's 3.5% GDP target by 2035.
Assessing the Likelihood of Meeting Targets
Sir Keir Starmer has maintained that the DIP places the UK on a
"trajectory"to reach the 3% of GDP defence spending ambition within the next parliament.
The DIP also asserts that the UK's commitment to Nato to spend 3.5% of GDP by 2035
"will be met".
However, it is challenging to reconcile reaching only 2.7% of GDP by 2030 with being on track to meet the 3.5% target by 2035.
Future spending reviews could alter this outlook if they allocate increased funding to the MoD and other defence-related activities in subsequent years.
Other Defence Spending Figures
The prime minister has frequently cited that the government is investing £270 billion in defence over the current parliament, describing this as
"the biggest sustained increase in defence spending since the 1980s".
This figure represents the total cash allocation for the MoD budget as outlined in the 2025 Spending Review, covering the four years up to 2028-29.
Sir Keir stated that the DIP adds
"a further £15bn"to this amount.
This £15 billion increase reflects additional defence spending over four years compared to previous plans.
Reports indicate that the original DIP proposed a £13.5 billion increase over four years, suggesting the government has identified an extra £1.5 billion for defence since Healey's resignation.
Defence Budget Shortfall Reports
There have been widespread reports of a £28 billion shortfall in the UK's defence budget.
This figure was initially reported by The Times in January, which stated that Chief of the Defence Staff, Air Chief Marshal Sir Richard Knighton, warned Sir Keir late last year that the MoD faced a £28 billion shortfall over the next four years.
The MoD has clarified that the £28 billion figure did not originate from them and has not been officially confirmed.
It may represent an internal MoD estimate of the gap between available budget funding over the next four years and the cost of existing commitments.
For further context, see analyses on recent UK defence spending trends and Sir Keir Starmer's premiership.
