Population Decline Linked to Reduced Migration
Scotland's population is expected to decrease due to a projected decline in international migration, according to new data.
The National Records of Scotland (NRS) had previously forecasted a steady population increase over the next 25 years, anticipating a rise to 5.8 million by 2047.
However, the latest projection indicates the population will peak at 5.56 million in 2033 before declining to 5.47 million by 2049.
The NRS attributed this change primarily to migration falling from unusually high levels.
Currently, Scotland's population is at a record high, exceeding 5.54 million in 2024.
This occurs despite deaths outnumbering births since 2015, a trend explained by net positive migration, with more people moving to Scotland than leaving. Arrivals from overseas remain at historically high levels.
Immigration has contributed to population growth in Scotland for the past 24 years, and this trend was expected to continue for the next two decades.
However, the NRS now reports that a recent decrease in estimated international migration, as indicated by the UK’s Office for National Statistics, has led to a revised projection of a lower population.
According to the latest NRS projections, Scotland's population is anticipated to decline by 1.3% over the 25 years leading to mid-2049, while the overall UK population is projected to grow by 4.5% during the same period.
Nevertheless, the UK population growth rate is expected to slow compared to previous estimates due to reduced migration levels.
Andrew White, head of population and migration statistics at NRS, stated:
"Our latest projections are lower than the last set of figures. This is mainly driven by migration falling from unusually high levels.
While we continue to project more people moving to Scotland than leaving, we now anticipate these levels to be too low to completely offset the gap between deaths and births.
At the same time, we see the number of older people continuing to rise but the number of children and young adults fall."
It is important to note that projections are not forecasts or predictions and do not account for future changes or events.
A detailed breakdown of the population projections reveals that the number of people aged 75 and over is expected to increase by over 300,000 by mid-2049.
During the same period, the number of children is projected to decrease by nearly 166,000, and the number of young adults is expected to decline by more than 157,000.
Since 2015, deaths have exceeded births annually. The NRS refers to the difference between births and deaths as "the natural change" and predicts this gap will widen in coming decades due to lower birth rates and an aging population.
Immigration and the Election Campaign
Although immigration is not directly governed by the Scottish Parliament, it has become a highly contentious topic in the current election campaign.
SNP minister Mairi McAllan has expressed concern that "too few" migrants are coming to Scotland and emphasized that migration is "good and necessary" for the economy.
Conversely, Reform Party's Thomas Kerr argued that immigration has strained public systems to the breaking point.
Both politicians made their remarks during BBC Scotland's The Sunday Show debate on immigration, where other major parties expressed differing views.
Conservative Stephen Kerr stated that voters believe governments lack control over immigration, while Liberal Democrat Christine Jardine and Labour's Michael Marra described immigration as necessary. Patrick Harvie of the Scottish Greens characterized immigration as "valuable."
BBC Verify has investigated claims made by political leaders regarding the impact of asylum seekers and migration on housing availability.
A concise summary of the main parties' positions on immigration and other key campaign issues has also been produced by BBC Scotland.
