Labour Leadership Crisis: What Lies Ahead for Sir Keir Starmer?
Recent resignations and a rebellion by some Labour MPs have challenged Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer's control, yet the leadership crisis within the Labour Party remains unresolved.
Andy Burnham is seeking to stand in a by-election triggered by the resignation of a Labour MP who wants the Greater Manchester mayor to replace Sir Keir.
Wes Streeting has resigned as health secretary, expressing a desire for a "broad" debate about the party's future leadership.
Meanwhile, former deputy prime minister Angela Rayner has not dismissed the possibility of running in any leadership contest after an investigation into her tax affairs was resolved.
Despite these developments, no formal leadership contest has been initiated.
Given the complexity of the situation, here are five potential scenarios that could unfold in the coming weeks.
Starmer Decides to Stand Down
Under intense pressure this week to resign, the prime minister might decide he has reached his limit.
However, this appears unlikely at present.
Many Labour MPs have urged him to announce a timetable for his departure, which could allow for a more dignified and orderly exit at a time of his choosing.
Nevertheless, Sir Keir has repeatedly stated in recent speeches and cabinet meetings that he would not "walk away" from the leadership role, indicating he intends to resist any challenge.
Leadership Contest Without Burnham
In theory, a leadership contest could be triggered immediately if a Labour MP secures enough support to challenge the prime minister.
To initiate this process, the challenger would need backing from 20% of the parliamentary party, equating to 81 Labour MPs.
It was initially thought that Wes Streeting might lead this effort, but in his resignation letter this week, he expressed a desire for a "debate about what comes next" rather than an immediate contest.
His allies claim he had sufficient support but chose to pressure the prime minister to resign voluntarily instead of rushing into a contest.
Conversely, supporters of the prime minister argue that Streeting lacked the necessary backing, with estimates suggesting he had only 44 committed supporters.
Either way, Streeting appears to be waiting, potentially leading to a protracted leadership battle.
On social media, he expressed support for Burnham standing as the party's candidate in the Makerfield by-election, stating he had "the best chance of winning."
Burnham Wins By-Election and Challenges Starmer for Leadership
This scenario requires some speculation.
There is no certainty that Burnham will win the Makerfield by-election, which is expected to be fiercely contested by Reform UK. Burnham would need to resign as Greater Manchester mayor if he wins the by-election.
Nonetheless, it is a significant risk for Burnham, as he can only challenge for the Labour leadership if he becomes an MP.
If successful, he could argue that he has demonstrated the ability to revive Labour's declining standing in opinion polls and defeat Reform UK in a general election.
In contrast, Sir Keir has a poor record against Reform UK, which dealt Labour heavy losses in some of its traditional strongholds during recent elections in England, Scotland, and Wales.
Back in Parliament, Burnham could gather the necessary support to trigger a leadership contest and use this electoral evidence in his campaign.
In a direct contest with Sir Keir, who recently lost hundreds of council seats and the Gorton and Denton by-election to Reform UK, Burnham would have momentum.
If these circumstances materialize, Burnham could be positioned on a path to Number 10 Downing Street.
Burnham Wins By-Election and Starmer Steps Down
A Burnham victory in Makerfield would send a strong message to Sir Keir.
The prime minister would likely recognize that polling among Labour members suggests he would lose a one-on-one leadership contest against Burnham.
Rather than face probable defeat, Sir Keir might resign following Burnham's by-election win.
This could either lead to Burnham's coronation as the new leader or trigger a leadership election involving Streeting, Rayner, and possibly other contenders.
Burnham Loses By-Election and Uncertainty Deepens
There is a significant possibility that Burnham could lose the Makerfield by-election.
Reform UK finished a competitive second in the constituency during the 2024 general election and recently won 24 seats on Wigan Council, including two wards in Ashton-in-Makerfield.
Given this, Nigel Farage's party is optimistic about its chances in the by-election.
If Burnham loses, the leadership situation would become even more uncertain.
Sir Keir's tenure at Downing Street would likely continue under these circumstances, placing the responsibility on another Labour MP or cabinet minister to initiate a leadership challenge instead of Burnham.
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