Gorton and Denton campaign hits final day with new poll suggesting Greens, Labour and Reform UK all possible winners
Good morning. It is the last full day of campaigning in the Gorton and Denton byelection and a new poll has been released indicating that the contest is too close to call, with the Greens, Labour, and Reform UK each having a credible chance of winning.
The data provides more detail. Opinium conducted the poll for Forward Democracy, showing a dead heat among all voters: the Greens and Labour each at 28%, and Reform UK at 27%. Among likely voters, the Greens lead slightly with 30%, while Labour and Reform UK both stand at 28%.
This is the second poll suggesting a marginal lead for the Greens. An earlier poll at the end of last week showed the Greens at 33%, Reform UK at 29%, and Labour at 26%. However, constituency polling can be volatile, and most leads fall within the margin of error. Therefore, the only reliable conclusion is that the result remains too close to call.
Another significant observation is that in what has traditionally been a safe Labour seat, two challenger parties are competitive. It is common in byelections for one outsider party to perform well, but here both Reform UK and the Greens are potential winners. This further confirms the breakdown of the two-party system, ushering in an era of multi-party politics.
Opinium polling also reveals a notable finding regarding tactical voting. Adam Bienkov reports:
"The poll suggests that tactical voting could easily swing the contest, with anti-Reform voters significantly more likely to switch to the Greens than to Labour."
Approximately two-thirds (66%) of Labour and Liberal Democrat voters surveyed said they would be prepared to switch to the Greens if they were the party most likely to defeat Reform UK, compared to just 41% of Green and Liberal Democrat voters who said they would switch to Labour to prevent a Reform UK victory.
James Crouch, head of policy and public affairs at Opinium, commented on the poll:
"The Gorton & Denton by-election is shaping up to be an incredibly tight and unpredictable three-way race, with this latest poll also suggesting the Greens could benefit more than Labour from tactical voting in the final days of the campaign."
Further analysis will be provided later today.
Here is the agenda for the day:
- Noon: Keir Starmer faces questions at PMQs.
- Afternoon: Chancellor Rachel Reeves visits to discuss the Ofgem price cap announcement.
- The government will publish its courts and tribunals bill today.
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Ben Walker, a New Statesman data journalist who runs the election forecasting model Britain Predicts, has attempted to forecast the Gorton and Denton result. The model is not a poll; it uses polling data adjusted on a constituency basis considering various factors. It has performed well previously, but Walker states the result here is "anyone’s guess" due to the close competition among the Greens, Reform UK, and Labour.
"Under the bonnet there are also turnout assumptions. The model expects 37,300 votes to be cast, up from 36,600 in 2024. In practice that puts the Greens on course for 11,500 votes, Reform 11,300, and Labour 10,900. A few hundred votes separate first from third."
Three polls have been published for Gorton and Denton. The first, by Find Out Now, has been largely disregarded due to a small sample size of 143, which is insufficient for reliability. The company also stated it was not involved in the decision to release the figures to the media. For completeness, a chart with all three polling results is available.
In light of today’s polling, it is worth recalling comments by Philip Cowley, a politics professor:
"I feel Thursday could be a test of Cowley’s Law of By-Election Analysis: that too much attention is paid to who wins."
"Also, Cowley’s rarely used Supplementary Law of By-Election Analysis: too much attention can be paid to who comes third."
Next EU-UK summit likely to happen in July, later than expected, EU commissioner says
Lisa O’Carroll, a correspondent covering trade, reports that the next EU-UK summit will probably not occur until July, according to Maroš Šefčovič.
This delay means the summit will take place two months later than initially expected and may indicate that negotiations over a new farm food agreement involving sanitary and phytosanitary checks, as well as discussions on the carbon border mechanism, are taking longer than anticipated.
Speaking to the European Parliament, Šefčovič, the EU commissioner for trade, confirmed that the UK and EU are intensifying engagement, with calls expected every fortnight between himself and Europe minister Nick Thomas-Symonds.
Sources said this increased contact aims to facilitate political resolution and prevent roadblocks at the official level.
One source noted it is intended to avoid a repeat of last November’s "embarrassing" collapse of talks between the UK and EU over joining the EU’s Safe defence programme.
European Parliament president Roberta Metsola is in London today, while Business Secretary Peter Kyle is in Brussels.
Byelection coverage in the UK would likely improve if MPs only resigned or died in constituencies with a politics professor active on social media nearby. Fortunately, Gorton and Denton has one. Professor Rob Ford, a leading psephologist, lives in the adjacent constituency. He co-authored a book with the Reform UK candidate (though they have since parted ways) and has been extensively writing about the contest on his blog.
His latest blog post was published last night and includes analysis of the latest poll. It is recommended reading in full, but here is an excerpt from his conclusion:
"Whoever wins on Friday, the result is likely to confirm a number of trends. Labour are sinking, populist parties are rising on the right and on the left, and as those parties are becoming viable and competitive in ever more seats, elections are becoming even more unpredictable. Prospects have never looked bleaker for the mainstream parties who have dominated British politics for so long - both may soon fall out of the top two in national polling, both face annihilation in the May local and devolved elections, and as the tide of revolt rises everywhere there are no safe seats left for either party’s MPs or local councillors ….
Whichever party emerges victorious on Friday, we may come to see this as the day Labour’s electoral Tinkerbell dies. And if voters’ beliefs about who can and cannot win are changed by this weeks events, then the pace of change may be about to accelerate once again. Hold on to your hats."
Energy bills will fall by £117 for millions of households in Great Britain from April
Annual energy bills will decrease by £117 for millions of households starting in April, following a government plan to reduce bills by £150 per year that was partially offset by rising costs, Jillian Ambrose reports.
