Local election campaigning enters final week as forecaster warns Labour could lose 1,850 English seats
Good morning. We have now entered the final week of campaigning for the Scottish Parliament, Welsh Senedd, and English local elections. Keir Starmer had planned to deliver a major speech today; however, he and other political leaders are currently prioritising their response to the Golders Green stabbing and the antisemitism threat facing Britain’s Jewish community. This threat has been described as a “national security emergency” by Jonathan Hall KC, the government’s independent reviewer of terror legislation. Here is our live blog by Taz Ali.
Taz will be covering most of the political reactions to that incident, so I will not be addressing it here. (Due to active criminal proceedings, comments related to the attack will not be permitted below the line.)
Instead, let us begin with the elections and a member of the House of Lords, Robert Hayward. Hayward is a Conservative and former MP, but at Westminster he is best known as an elections specialist who produces detailed forecasts ahead of elections. While no forecast is perfect, Hayward’s are well-informed and politically neutral. He is one of the few forecasters whose views are taken seriously by the main political parties. He may not predict exact outcomes, but his insights are valuable for understanding political expectations, which often influence how election results are interpreted.
Last night, Hayward revealed his forecast for the English local elections on ITV’s Peston.
Here is how Hayward explains his summary:
"England all figures given are net losses and gains
What impact on Sir Keir’s role? Given S Times comment re 1500 losses and ‘nervous breakdown’ this is bad news for Sir Keir and Labour.
Reform will be biggest gainer from both Labour and Conservatives, overwhelmingly outside London. They will gain 1550 seats
Will their national equivalent vote be lower than last year? I believe it will be
Conservatives will lose 600 seats many in councils deferred from last year. These seats were previously contested in the vaccine bounce year of 2021.
Do they gain any notable councils or stop Reform from taking control of target councils? Yes
Have they improved on the national equivalent vote last year? About static
Greens will gain 500 seats in London and middle class areas of other cities
Can they take any mayoralties or control any councils? Yes definitely mayoralty possibly a council or two
Lib Dems will gain 150 seats but will need to gain councils to be involved ‘in the conversation’.
Will national equivalent vote share reflect decline in poll position. Yes
Have they lost their position as part of the protest parties? Up to a point.
Independents will gain 250 seats
Many of these will be in east London, Birmingham and Lancs
Other forecasts are available as well. I will post more on those soon.
Parliament is not sitting today and the diary is light, but political developments will continue.
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More: Send inclusive schools ‘actively penalised in Ofsted grades’, union says
Lower grades in parts of a watchdog’s new report cards “actively penalise” schools that are more inclusive to pupils with special educational needs and disabilities (Send), according to a headteachers’ union. The Press Association reports:
"Analysis by the NAHT headteachers’ union of Ofsted inspections under the report card system found one in five (20%) schools with above average numbers of pupils with Send were judged ‘needs attention’ – the second lowest grade – in the report card’s attendance and behaviour area.
This is compared with one in 10 (9%) schools with below average numbers of pupils with Send, the NAHT said."
This comes after the Government unveiled sweeping reforms to the Send system intended to make the system and schools more inclusive.
NAHT general secretary Paul Whiteman said the findings should “ring serious alarm bells” for the government’s ambitions for more pupils with Send to learn in mainstream schools.
’s data experts have also examined Labour’s prospects in the elections, suggesting Labour’s vote share could fall to historic lows across elections for councils in England and devolved parliaments in Wales and Scotland on 7 May, with significant gains for Reform, the Greens, and nationalist parties, according to recent polling. This analysis is from Alex Clark and Ashley Kirk.
Robert Hayward has also provided his predictions for the Scottish Parliament and Welsh Senedd elections. He states:
"Scotland - SNP to be just short of a majority
Wales - Plaid to be the largest party in terms of both votes and seats"
However, there is greater interest in Hayward’s and other psephologists’ forecasts for the English local elections because they are difficult to poll. By contrast, there is much polling data available for the Holyrood and Senedd elections. One source of seat projections based on this polling is forthcoming.
