Cabinet Divided Over Prime Minister's Future
This morning, Sir Keir Starmer's cabinet is divided on the fundamental political question of whether the prime minister should continue in office.
A split of this nature within the cabinet is unsustainable. The situation demands that either cabinet ministers resign or are dismissed, or that the prime minister himself steps down.
Last night, ministers met with Sir Keir and presented a variety of advice. Some urged him to persist, others recommended he outline a timetable for his departure, and some assisted him in considering how to manage the challenging scenario he now faces.
Growing Public Loss of Confidence
A barrier now appears to have broken, with Labour MPs increasingly expressing their public loss of confidence in the prime minister, making it difficult to keep track of the number of such declarations.
Following the prime minister's pivotal speech on Monday, both public and private assessments began to emerge.
"Just so devastatingly crap"
was the succinct and harsh judgement of one Labour MP in contact with me. This assessment proved prescient given the subsequent wave of public criticism from his own colleagues.
Many MPs feel that Sir Keir is alienating too many voters at a time when Labour is grappling with how to counter Reform UK.
Conversely, numerous Labour MPs observe the unfolding crisis with dismay and anticipate being compelled to defend it publicly, though they would prefer it did not occur.
"A lot of us are watching this slightly aghast. With a war; an economy struggling due to Iran; market gilt movements etc. I'm still of the view that stability is a premium you give up at your peril,"
one MP told me.
Prime Minister's Perspective
Regarding the prime minister's viewpoint, I have spoken with individuals involved in recent discussions with him. They report that he has been steadfast in his desire to continue, convinced that a prolonged leadership contest poses a genuine risk to both the party and the country. A friend described the potential successor as having a "very questionable mandate." In other words, unlike Sir Keir, the successor would not have secured a general election victory.
However, the political arithmetic and mood confronting the prime minister are bleak and worsening.
"It's clearly not good,"
acknowledged a cabinet ally who would prefer the situation were different.
Internal Party Tensions and Leadership Rivalries
Already, tensions are evident within the Labour movement. Rival leadership factions are briefing against each other, and the blame for the current difficulties is being assigned.
Sir Keir now faces an especially difficult and painful day, beginning with a challenging cabinet meeting.
Tuesday's Cabinet Meeting
Tuesday morning starts with a cabinet meeting. Around the well-known table sits Sir Keir's carefully selected top team, now divided over how long their leader should remain in office.
Context of Political Instability
This week marks four years since I became the BBC's Political Editor.
During this period, I have reported on four prime ministers: Boris Johnson, Liz Truss, Rishi Sunak, and Sir Keir Starmer.
To provide context, I was 27 years old before witnessing the fourth prime minister of my lifetime, Gordon Brown, in 2007. In the preceding quarter-century, there had been only three: Margaret Thatcher, John Major, and Tony Blair.
Political instability and prime ministers with brief tenures have become the norm. Neither a large parliamentary majority nor being a party out of government for some time guarantees immunity from this reality.
