Labour Leadership Challenge Risks Chaos, Warn Cabinet Ministers
Cabinet ministers have cautioned rebellious Labour MPs that any attempt to remove Keir Starmer following potentially disastrous election results this week would trigger chaos within the party that would be difficult to overcome.
Despite the prime minister's determination to remain in Downing Street after Thursday's vote, several ministers told that the atmosphere among backbenchers was tense and events could still spiral out of control.
They also acknowledged that while they would discourage any coup against Starmer at present, they did not expect him to lead the party into the next general election.
"When your personal brand is so poor, it is seldom retrievable,"one minister added.
Labour Faces Significant Losses Across England, Scotland, and Wales
Labour is projected to lose more than 1,500 council seats across England, face a struggle for second place in Scotland, and confront the prospect of losing Wales after a century of dominance. This situation leaves thousands of local politicians frustrated and viewing themselves as victims of the government's unpopularity.
Before MPs returned to their constituencies last week, speculation about Starmer's future was widespread, with figures such as Angela Rayner, Wes Streeting, and Andy Burnham—despite some not being eligible—seen as potential contenders.
Some have argued that Starmer should announce a timetable for his departure, and there are suggestions that a group of cabinet ministers might be prepared to inform the prime minister that his time is up if the election results are as poor as anticipated.
Limited Appetite for Leadership Contest Within Cabinet
understands that the appetite within the cabinet for a leadership contest is very limited, even among ministers who believe Starmer will step down before the 2029 general election.
"We have a role to play and we’ll certainly not want chaos,"one minister said.
"That’s not in anybody’s interests."
Another minister indicated there is no faction within the cabinet planning to act collectively, while a third stated:
"I don’t want new leaders, plots, pacts, talk of orderly transitions which shut out the public. Will there be cabinet resignations or a move against Keir? There could be, but I won’t be part of it."
Several ministers warned of the risks of unintended consequences.
"Those of us who are sane don’t really want a leadership contest or a timetable for Keir’s departure that undermines the party’s position, but we recognise that when the mood is febrile things can kick off,"one said.
"We wouldn’t be thanked for picking our own leader three years out from the next election. It’s not that things are perfect, it’s just that it’s premature."
Potential Contenders and Party Dynamics
Neither Angela Rayner, the former deputy prime minister, nor Wes Streeting, the health secretary, are thought likely to initiate a leadership challenge, with allies suggesting they would only enter a contest if triggered by someone else. Additionally, Rayner still needs to resolve her tax affairs.
Members of Labour’s national executive committee, which barred a candidate from standing in the Gorton and Denton by-election in February, do not believe there is a path for him back to parliament despite reports over the weekend.
Ed Miliband, the climate secretary, is said by colleagues to be more inclined to act as a kingmaker for Andy Burnham rather than pursue the leadership himself. One friend noted he is determined to prevent another figure from becoming leader.
Downing Street's Position and Starmer's Response
Downing Street has made clear that Starmer would resist any attempt to remove him, with allies of the prime minister warning potential rivals to carefully consider the instability such a challenge would cause, especially amid ongoing conflict and economic difficulties.
They also downplayed the likelihood of a reshuffle, which some regard as potentially more destabilizing, suggesting Starmer would only conduct one if ministers resigned following the election results and vacancies needed to be filled.
Writing in a recent article, Starmer stated:
"We have a choice. We could sink into the politics of grievance and division. Or we could rise to this moment – together – in a national effort that matches the scale of the threats and turbulence we face.
When the nation rallied together to deal with Covid, the last government could have channelled that spirit to build a better nation. But instead, they descended into political infighting and let the country slump back to the old status quo. Not this time."
