Irish Voters' Message in Dublin and Galway By-Elections
When Irish voters went to the polls last Friday for the two by-elections in Dublin and Galway, they sent a clear message to the political system. Traditionally, government parties tend to lose ground in by-elections, as voters often use these contests to express dissatisfaction with the ruling administration.
Given this pattern, it was anticipated that Sinn Féin, the largest opposition party in the Republic of Ireland, would secure at least one of the two seats and potentially both. However, the results marked another disappointing weekend for Mary Lou McDonald's party.
Challenges in Mary Lou McDonald's Constituency
No seat, ever, in any contest, is an easy seat to win,
Mary Lou McDonald, Sinn Féin party leader, remarked to reporters at the RDS count centre on Saturday.
It is generally expected that a party leader can secure a second seat in their constituency, as demonstrated by Taoiseach Micheál Martin and Tánaiste Simon Harris, who have both achieved this in their respective areas.
Dublin Central is a complex constituency due to its diversity, size, and the wide range of constituent issues. The area includes affluent neighborhoods with homes valued over one million euros, alongside significant social housing, particularly in the north inner city.
Some voters in Dublin Central don't care too much about the real issues,said a Sinn Féin source who extensively canvassed before the by-elections.
Some people complain about flower beds in traffic islands. You walk down the street and then people in the council flats are talking about how there is so much mould and damp that the light doesn't work in a bedroom, because there is water leaking down through it.
In the 2020 general election, McDonald’s personal vote in Dublin Central was so substantial that a running mate would likely have been elected alongside her. However, the current situation is markedly different.
The party’s candidate, Janice Boylan, a longtime councillor, nearly left Sinn Féin several years ago but was eventually selected as McDonald’s running mate for the 2024 general election. Despite this, Boylan was not elected, and reports from The Sunday Times indicate that McDonald did not want her to run in the recent by-election. Nevertheless, local party members chose Boylan to stand.
Although Boylan performed well, she finished second and was unable to surpass Daniel Ennis of the Social Democrats, who topped the poll.
Disillusionment Among Sinn Féin Voters
A Fine Gael advisor suggested that some "disillusioned" Sinn Féin voters cast their first-preference votes for Gerry Hutch.
Gerard Hutch was acquitted in 2023 of the murder of David Byrne, who was killed in 2016 at the Regency Hotel amid the Hutch-Kinahan gang feud.
When Hutch was excluded and his votes redistributed, Boylan received more transfers than candidates from the Social Democrats or the Green Party.
Another political analyst observed that wealthier voters in the constituency may have opted for the Social Democrats or the Green Party due to Sinn Féin’s positions on immigration and the recent protests that disrupted Ireland.
Setbacks in Galway West
Sinn Féin’s performance in Galway West was notably weak. Candidate Mark Lohan received 3,208 first-preference votes, significantly fewer than the party’s sitting TD Mairéad Farrell, who topped the poll in the 2024 general election.
There was dissatisfaction within the Galway West party membership regarding Lohan’s inability to speak Irish, an important issue given the constituency includes a substantial Gaeltacht area. Local media reported that some members of the local Sinn Féin branch refused to campaign for him.
Questions Surrounding Mary Lou McDonald's Leadership
Despite the disappointing results, party figures and TDs who spoke to NI insisted that Mary Lou McDonald’s leadership is secure.
>She's safe as a house,said one source.
However, discussions about McDonald’s leadership intensified around the Ard Fheis several weeks ago, where she was re-elected as party leader. Similar questions have resurfaced in the media as Sinn Féin struggles to regain momentum and faces pressure from the Social Democrats, who appear to be capitalizing on the space Sinn Féin has left.
While McDonald’s position may currently be stable, the party’s difficulties suggest that this security may not last indefinitely.
