Von der Leyen Gambles Mercosur Deal Benefits Will Outweigh Risks Before Court Ruling
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has taken a significant risk by proceeding with the Mercosur trade deal, betting that its benefits will surpass the negative impacts anticipated by critics. The European Court of Justice (ECJ) may take up to two years to rule on the deal's legality, by which time the actual effects of Mercosur on the European market will be clearer.
Farmers in the European grain, beef, and poultry sectors have expressed concerns, describing themselves as "collateral damage" due to the deal. However, within two years, the extent of any damage will be more evident.
Von der Leyen's strategy assumes that the ECJ will uphold the deal, enabling trade to foster economic growth while limiting harm to European farmers. This outcome would complicate efforts by the European Parliament to reject the agreement.
European Parliament Trade Committee Chair Supports Provisional Application of Mercosur
Bernd Lange, the German chair of the European Parliament’s trade committee, has expressed support for the European Commission's decision to provisionally apply the Mercosur agreement.
"Decision [of the European Commission] to go ahead with provisional application EU-Mercosur is the right one. Many in [European Parliament] agree. We are in an exceptional situation where EP can only vote after ECJ. At the same time, international trade rules are constantly violated by others.
The time to reap the benefits of this agreement is now, not in a few months. Where others are breaking rules, we provide certainty, predictability and economic opportunities for our consumers and producers."
Germany Praises 'Historic' Deal with Mercosur
Contrasting with opposition voices from France, German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul described the Mercosur agreement as "historic."
"This is the hour of Europe: With the [European Commission] provisionally applying the EU-Mercosur FTA [free trade agreement] companies & people from both continents can finally benefit from more prosperity & growth.
Germany will work tirelessly to help tap the full potential of this historic agreement."
French President Macron Criticizes Provisional Mercosur Implementation
French President Emmanuel Macron labeled the European Commission's decision as "a bad surprise" and deemed it "disrespectful" toward the European Parliament. He shared his views during a press conference alongside Slovenian Prime Minister Robert Golob.
Irish MEP Reacts to Provisional Mercosur Implementation
Maria Walsh, an Irish Member of the European Parliament (MEP) affiliated with one of Ireland’s ruling parties, stated that the European Commission's move to provisionally implement the Mercosur deal was "no surprise." Walsh and other MEPs believe that sending the deal to the European Court of Justice was a delaying tactic and that the European Parliament should have held a full vote instead.
Walsh, a full member of the European Parliament’s Agriculture Committee, commented:
"While I’m bitterly disappointed with today’s news, it comes as no surprise to me that the Commission has decided to provisionally implement the Mercosur trade deal. I warned that the court referral would not block this deal - it would only change the route by which it comes into force. MEPs who voted in favour of the referral should feel the full weight of their decisions today.
While provisional application is legally within the Commission’s powers, I believe it runs against the spirit of cooperation between EU institutions. MEPs should have had their say before any part of this agreement was activated.
The referral to the ECJ was a political gesture dressed up as strategy. Those who supported it knew it was highly unlikely to deliver meaningful protections for Irish farmers. In fact, we now find ourselves in a worse position - facing earlier implementation and prolonged uncertainty for our agricultural sector."
Mercosur Trade Deal Could Enter Provisional Application by May
Argentinian beef products could appear in European supermarkets by May following European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s decision to provisionally apply the contested Mercosur trade deal. This decision sets her on a potential collision course with the European Parliament and agricultural stakeholders.
After consulting EU member states, von der Leyen chose to proceed with provisional application of the Mercosur agreement, which includes South American countries such as Uruguay and Argentina, both of which have ratified the deal.
The agreement was approved by 21 of the 27 EU member states but was effectively stalled by a majority of MEPs who voted to refer the deal to the European Court of Justice.
Olof Gill, the European Commission’s trade spokesperson, confirmed that the process to open the preferential trade deal could take approximately two months.
According to procedural rules, both parties must exchange "notes verbales," a formal but unsigned diplomatic communication, to confirm their agreement to trade under the deal.
Provisional application would then commence on the first day of the second month following the exchange of these diplomatic notes. For example, if the notes were exchanged next week, the deal could begin provisional operation in May.
Zelenskyy Engages Slovakia’s Fico, Sidelines Hungary’s Orbán
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has invited Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico to discuss ongoing issues, a move interpreted as an attempt to de-escalate tensions while isolating Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán amid Orbán’s challenging parliamentary campaign.
Orbán has intensified anti-Ukrainian rhetoric, including placing Zelenskyy’s image on AI-generated election posters and alleging that Ukraine might harm Hungary’s energy grid. Engaging with Fico, who is generally more moderate, may facilitate dialogue for Ukraine.
Observers are monitoring developments, anticipating Fico’s forthcoming public statements, as he is known for candid commentary.
Zelenskyy Invites Slovakia’s Fico to Discuss All Issues
In response, Zelenskyy’s office announced a phone call with Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico. Zelenskyy invited Fico to discuss "all existing issues," according to a report.
Orbán and Fico Collaborate on Druzhba Pipeline Investigation
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán recently announced a conversation with Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, during which they agreed to establish a "joint investigative committee" to examine the disputed condition of the Druzhba oil pipeline.
Orbán claimed that both Hungary and Slovakia are affected by what he described as "an oil blockade" imposed by Ukraine, a claim contested by Ukraine and the European Union.
He reiterated his assertion that Kyiv’s explanation—that the pipeline is non-operational due to Russian damage—is "not true," alleging the shutdown is "exclusively for political reasons." Orbán called on Zelenskyy to permit inspectors access to the pipeline for further examination.
This dispute arises amid Orbán’s difficult electoral campaign, where he faces the possibility of losing power after 16 years in office during the April parliamentary elections.
France Expresses Regret Over EU’s Provisional Application of Mercosur Deal
France, which led opposition to the Mercosur agreement, has expressed strong dissatisfaction with the European Commission’s decision to provisionally apply the deal.
French Agriculture Minister Annie Genevard stated at the Salon de l’Agriculture, following von der Leyen’s announcement:
"It is a decision that I regret,"
"It is not in line with the respect that should have been shown for the European Parliament’s decision."
She described the provisional application as "very damaging to the functioning of our institutions and, above all, to the spirit of our European institutions," according to AFP.
EU Welcomes Orbán’s Proposal for Joint Druzhba Pipeline Inspection
The European Commission responded to Viktor Orbán’s proposal for a joint inspection of the Druzhba pipeline, which has been disrupted, affecting oil flows to Hungary and Slovakia.
An EU spokesperson described Orbán’s initiative as "a welcome step" and noted ongoing contact with Ukrainian authorities to determine how to proceed.
However, the spokesperson reaffirmed the EU’s position that the disruption was caused by Russian attacks impacting Ukrainian and European energy security.
