What Magyar’s Victory Means for the EU and Hungary
There is significant relief in Brussels following the defeat of Viktor Orbán, the Hungarian prime minister who recently declared himself a strong opponent of the EU. Péter Magyar’s victory was welcomed by the EU as voters decisively rejected Orbán’s campaign, which sought to link him with the "dangerous" European Commission leader Ursula von der Leyen and Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Orbán’s 16-year tenure as Hungary’s prime minister was marked by frequent opposition, delays, and mockery of numerous EU decisions, particularly regarding European support for Ukraine.
One of the most pressing issues for the EU now is how quickly Magyar will remove Hungary’s blockade on a critical €90 billion loan for Ukraine and the union’s 20th round of sanctions against Russia.
On Monday, Magyar stated he was prepared to support the €90 billion EU loan for Ukraine provided Hungary did not participate directly—terms similar to those agreed by Orbán in December. However, Magyar’s tepid support for Ukraine’s EU accession, which he said would not occur "in the next ten years," and his stance on sanctions against Russia are likely to cause concern among Kyiv’s strongest allies, such as Poland and the Baltic states. Magyar expressed hope that Russia’s aggression in Ukraine would end soon, after which Europe would "immediately" lift sanctions.
"I understand the moral issues … but let’s not shoot ourselves in the leg,"he said, highlighting concerns about the economic impact.
His views echo those of former German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder, who faced criticism for advocating Europe's need to regain access to affordable Russian energy. Privately, some Western EU member states also harbor reservations about a rapid timetable for Ukraine’s EU accession.
Speaking on Monday, Ursula von der Leyen did not focus on these specifics. She likened the significance of Sunday’s election result to the 1956 Hungarian uprising against the Soviet Union and to 1989, when Hungarians became the first in the Eastern bloc to break away.
"We will start working with the government as soon as possible,"she said when asked about the €90 billion loan and Hungary’s frozen EU funds.
Energy policy remains a sensitive topic. While Magyar’s Tisza party has pledged to phase out Russian energy imports by 2035, the EU aims to end all Russian oil and gas imports by the end of 2027. Analysts suggest that Magyar’s likely choice for foreign minister, Anita Orbán—a former diplomat unrelated to the current prime minister who has authored works on how the Kremlin uses energy as a foreign policy tool—will play a central role in this area.
Despite these tensions, Hungary under Magyar appears poised to become a "normal" EU member state that advocates for its own interests rather than using vetoes and EU procedures to advance Russia’s agenda. Daniel Hegedüs, senior visiting fellow at the German Marshall Fund, described Magyar as a "national conservative EPP guy," referring to his membership in the centre-right European People’s Party.
"I think he understands that his political future and success is in some way tied to the redemocratisation of Hungary,"Hegedüs said.
For Magyar, who served as a diplomat in Brussels during Orbán’s administration, the immediate priority is fulfilling his campaign promise to "bring home" Hungary’s EU funds. Currently, €17 billion in funds for Hungary’s economic development remain frozen due to failures to meet EU standards on corruption, judicial independence, academic freedom, and Hungary’s anti-LGBTQ law. Approximately €2.12 billion has been lost permanently. The deadline for Hungary and the European Commission to agree on the use of nearly €10 billion in grants and loans is the end of August. Any extension would require unanimous approval from all 27 member states.
Hegedüs emphasized the need for "constructive diplomacy" from both sides.
"This is a sort of transactional standoff, but in a good sense,"he said.
"The main output legitimacy for the new Hungarian government will be how fast and what amount of the frozen EU funding they can bring back home."He added that the EU should "trust but verify."
Asylum and migration policy could also present challenges. Hungary is an early concern for a new government aiming to stabilize public finances. Magyar criticized Europe’s handling of migration, referring to the 2015 refugee crisis when over one million people sought asylum.
"Most countries had rather late realised their initial stance was not good,"he said.
Magyar’s views align with the prevailing EU approach, which since 2015 has shifted toward tougher policies, including support for offshore migration centers and stricter deportation orders. It remains unclear how Magyar will address other contentious issues such as Orbán’s anti-LGBTQ legislation.
EU leaders will soon assess Magyar’s leadership. His initial foreign policy visits are planned for Warsaw and Vienna. Some analysts note the absence of Berlin—the main economic partner of Hungary—from this list as a possible downgrade.
László Andor, a former Hungarian EU commissioner, commented,
"I think it’s just inevitable that Hungary starts this new chapter of reintegrating in European policies and values, which is demanded especially by the young generation."Andor, a Social Democrat economist, highlighted the decisive but underappreciated role of Generation Z in Magyar’s landslide victory, describing them as
"the young people who have meagre economic opportunities and have been excluded from Erasmus,"due to economic stagnation and disputes with the EU that affected Hungarian participation in the student exchange program.
"They quietly waited for the moment when this could change electorally."
Additional reporting by Jakub Krupa
