Greens Win Key State Election in Baden-Württemberg
Friedrich Merz’s Christian Democrats (CDU) have encountered a significant setback as the Greens secured victory in the Baden-Württemberg state election, a crucial poll in Germany’s automotive heartland. The CDU, led by Merz, faced challenges from the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) amid a busy election year.
Despite holding a double-digit lead just weeks prior, the CDU was narrowly defeated by the Greens and their candidate Cem Özdemir, who garnered 30.2% of the vote in the southwestern state known for its car manufacturing industry.
Merz, who recently traveled to Washington and Kyiv to advocate for Germany amid global uncertainties, described the result as a
“bitter result”and emphasized the need for his government to regain voter confidence.
“We will now have to make more substantial progress with the necessary reforms so that we in Germany can emerge from this difficult economic situation,”he stated to reporters on Monday.
Historic Victory for Cem Özdemir
The Greens’ unexpected win positions Cem Özdemir, a former federal cabinet minister and party co-chair, to become Germany’s first state premier from the large Turkish diaspora community, more than fifty years after the first Turkish immigrants arrived in the country.
Özdemir, aged 60, whose parents immigrated to Germany in the 1960s, expressed his intention to continue the existing Greens-CDU coalition government in Baden-Württemberg, a prosperous state with over 11 million residents. He will succeed Winfried Kretschmann, Germany’s first and only Green state leader to date, who is retiring after 15 years in office.
Far-Right AfD Gains Ground but Falls Short
The far-right AfD capitalized on concerns about deindustrialization in Baden-Württemberg, home to automotive giants Mercedes-Benz and Porsche, nearly doubling its vote share from five years ago to almost 19%. This marks the party’s best performance in a western German state.
However, the AfD fell short of its 20% target and finished third, which was somewhat disappointing given its ambitions to expand influence beyond its traditional eastern strongholds.
Nevertheless, the result demonstrated the AfD’s capacity to broaden its appeal beyond immigration issues, addressing economic anxieties and securing substantial support in affluent western regions.
CDU and SPD Results and Reactions
Merz’s CDU received 29.7% of the vote, while the Social Democrats (SPD), the CDU’s junior coalition partners at the federal level, suffered a significant loss, obtaining only 5.5%. SPD co-leader Lars Klingbeil, who also serves as Germany’s vice-chancellor and finance minister, described the outcome as an
“utterly bitter night”.
Merz, aged 70, has faced difficulties in revitalizing Europe’s largest economy, a challenge he acknowledged on Monday amid increasing threats from a potential recession. His approval ratings have also declined due to recent political disputes in a country that values political harmony and consensus.
Upcoming Elections and Political Implications
Sunday’s election was the first of five state elections scheduled for this year. The next election, on 22 March in Rhineland-Palatinate, will see the national governing parties compete directly. The SPD has led this state since 1991 and currently runs neck-and-neck with the CDU.
In September, elections will take place in Berlin and two eastern regions where the AfD aims to secure its first absolute majority and appoint a state premier.
Political scientist Albrecht von Lucke characterized the Baden-Württemberg result as a
“catastrophe”for Merz’s government, stating to the Frankfurter Rundschau newspaper that the defeat had a
“devastating effect right at the start of the year.”He noted that the regional CDU
“certainly received no tailwind from Berlin.”
Von Lucke warned that if Rhineland-Palatinate is also lost, the CDU would be in a weak position ahead of the critical eastern state election in Saxony-Anhalt, where the AfD could potentially win outright.
He further predicted that continued poor performances in state elections would heighten anxiety within the ruling coalition, leading to increased efforts by both parties to differentiate themselves, which could complicate federal government negotiations and ultimately benefit the AfD.
Greens’ Pragmatic Campaign and Climate Policy Impact
Özdemir’s campaign was pragmatic and centrist, contrasting with the Greens’ national polling at just 12%. Analysts suggest this result should serve as a warning to the party’s hardliner faction, whose influence has grown since the Greens exited the federal government last year.
Climate advocates highlighted the Greens’ victory as evidence that support for electric vehicles, a key issue for Özdemir, can be a decisive factor even in regions traditionally dominated by combustion engine manufacturers.
