Rising Jihadist Violence in Nigeria and DRC Despite Global Decline
Jihadist violence increased significantly in Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) in 2025, even as global deaths from terrorism fell to their lowest level in a decade, according to a recent report.
Nigeria experienced the largest rise in terrorism-related fatalities worldwide in 2025, with deaths increasing by 46% from 513 in 2024 to 750. This surge placed Nigeria fourth on the Global Terrorism Index, behind Pakistan, Burkina Faso, and Niger.
Africa’s most populous country is facing a complex security crisis as extremist groups such as Boko Haram and its splinter factions seek to control large areas. Additionally, various ethnic militias and criminal groups, including so-called "bandit" gangs, remain active primarily in northern and central Nigeria. Emerging threats, such as terrorists affiliated with the Lakurawa group, have also been identified.
In February, a deadly attack occurred in Kwara state near the border with the Benin Republic, marking one of the most lethal single assaults in Nigeria’s recent history.
On Wednesday, the Nigerian army reported that troops, supported by air forces, repelled a coordinated attack by Islamist insurgents on a military base in Borno state, located in the northeast. The military operation resulted in the deaths of at least 80 fighters, including senior commanders. This assault followed an earlier attack in Maiduguri, the capital of Borno, which killed at least 23 people and injured over 100.
Increase in Terrorism Deaths in the Democratic Republic of Congo
In the DRC, terrorism-related fatalities rose by nearly 28% in 2025, from 365 to 467. This increase elevated the central African nation to eighth place on the Global Terrorism Index, its highest ranking to date. The rise in deaths was mainly attributed to the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF), an Islamic State-affiliated group.
Global Trends and Regional Contrasts
The increases in Nigeria and the DRC contrast with global trends. The Global Terrorism Index, compiled by the Australian think tank Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP), recorded a 28% decline in worldwide terrorism deaths, totaling 5,582 in 2025. Additionally, the total number of attacks fell by nearly 22%.
However, the report noted a 280% rise in terrorism-related deaths in Western countries, with 57 fatalities recorded in 2025. The United States accounted for 28 of these deaths, marking the highest number since 2019. The index attributes this increase primarily to youth radicalization and lone-wolf attacks.
"Viewed in totality, these trends point to one sobering conclusion: a fracturing world order risks erasing the hard-fought gains made against terrorism over the past decade," said Steve Killelea, IEP’s founder.
The Sahel Region Remains a Terrorism Epicenter
More than half of all terrorism-related deaths worldwide in 2025 occurred in the Sahel region, which continues to be regarded as the global center of terrorism, despite a decline from the previous year. Burkina Faso, where the military junta controls only about one-third of the territory, recorded the largest reduction in terrorism deaths globally, with fatalities halving in 2025. Civilian casualties in the country also fell by 84%.
Experts suggest this shift indicates that the al-Qaida affiliate Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam wal Muslimeen (JNIM) is intentionally reducing attacks on civilians to win "hearts and minds" and consolidate territorial control with increasing sophistication.
"For JNIM, the change in tactics can perhaps best be explained by the ‘value v vulnerability’ trade-off. Military forces and political figures are considered high-value targets. As JNIM now controls more territory, it is better able to carry out attacks on higher value targets," Killelea explained.
This tactical adjustment aligns with a broader pattern of jihadist groups launching coordinated and complex attacks on military bases across the region as counterinsurgency efforts intensify. JNIM has frequently employed drones, using them in over 100 incidents of drone-related violence in the Sahel over the past three years. According to the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), there have also been 16 drone-related incidents involving the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) since 2014.
"Ten [of the ISWAP incidents] involved drone attacks and the remainder were intelligence‑gathering or surveillance missions used to prepare ground offensives against military targets," said Ladd Serwat, ACLED’s senior analyst for Africa.
Concentration of Attacks in Border Regions
The report further highlights an increasing concentration of terrorist attacks in border areas, including the Central Sahel tri-border zone and the Lake Chad Basin.
