Population Trends in Northern Ireland
Northern Ireland is experiencing a rapid ageing of its population, with projections indicating that by 2027, the number of people aged 65 and older will exceed the number of children. These projections, released by the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (Nisra), also suggest that the overall population will begin to decline starting in 2031, primarily due to persistently low birth rates.
According to Nisra, the year 2030 is expected to mark the point when deaths will outnumber births, a trend anticipated to continue indefinitely. Additionally, while recent years have seen relatively high levels of immigration, these are projected to stabilize at lower levels moving forward. This aligns with data from across the UK, which has already shown a decrease in immigration from the elevated post-pandemic figures.
Implications for the Health Service
The ageing demographic presents significant challenges for health services. Originally designed to address episodic health issues, the system is increasingly burdened by the rising prevalence of long-term conditions such as dementia. This shift towards a higher proportion of patients with multiple chronic illnesses is expected to persist.
Moreover, although life expectancy continues to increase, the rate of improvement in "healthy life expectancy" is not keeping pace. An older population also means a reduced pool of younger, working-age individuals available to train and work as nurses, doctors, and care workers, further straining healthcare resources.
Impact on Schools
The Department for Education at Stormont has acknowledged that a declining number of children will necessitate the closure or merging of schools. Their projections indicate that pupil numbers are expected to decrease by more than 12% over the next decade, with smaller rural schools facing particular challenges in maintaining viability.
Economic Consequences
A critical economic factor is the "dependency ratio," which measures the number of children and retired individuals dependent on the economic output of the working-age population. In 2024, Northern Ireland had 586 dependents for every 1,000 working-age people. This ratio is projected to rise to 614 dependents per 1,000 working-age individuals by mid-2049, representing an approximate 5% increase.
More notably, the composition of this dependency is shifting. The ratio of children to working-age people is expected to decline from 316 to 248 per 1,000, while the ratio of pensioners will increase significantly from 269 to 366 per 1,000, marking nearly a 36% rise in pensioner dependency.
This compression of the worker-to-pensioner ratio poses challenges for funding healthcare and pension costs through taxation. Addressing these issues extends beyond the remit of Stormont and will require intervention at the national government level.
Methodology Behind Nisra’s Projections
Nisra’s projections are based on data from 2024 concerning births, deaths, and migration, which have been extrapolated forward. These projections are not forecasts and do not attempt to predict the effects of government policies or economic changes. Instead, they represent plausible scenarios assuming current trends continue. The accuracy of these projections diminishes the further they extend into the future.
Additional Insights on Ageing Society
While the overall population of Northern Ireland is projected to experience a slight decline over the next 25 years, the population aged 65 and over is expected to increase by nearly 45% (44.7%). The growth among those aged 85 and over is even more pronounced, with projections indicating it will more than double, increasing by 126.1%.
This demographic shift will significantly alter the societal structure. In 2024, there were approximately 359,000 children aged 0-15 and about 164,000 people aged 75 and over in Northern Ireland. By 2034, this gap is projected to narrow considerably, with 295,000 children and 207,000 individuals aged 75 and above. The crossover point, where the number of people aged 75 and over surpasses the number of children, is projected to occur in 2046, with approximately 274,000 children and just over 274,000 people aged 75 plus.
