Outbreak May Have Peaked with Fewer New Cases
The meningitis outbreak in Kent may have reached its peak after officials reported only two new cases on Friday. The UK Health and Security Agency (UKHSA) confirmed that as of 12:30 pm on Thursday, there were 18 confirmed and 11 probable cases of meningitis linked to the outbreak, bringing the total number of affected individuals to 29. Among the confirmed cases, 13 were identified as meningitis B (MenB).
Although the rate of new cases appears to have slowed, the situation remains serious, with all patients requiring hospital admission. By 5 pm on Thursday, UKHSA reported that 2,360 vaccinations had been administered and 9,840 doses of antibiotics distributed to those impacted by the outbreak.
Ongoing Analysis of MenB Strain
Prof Robin May, chief scientific officer of UKHSA, stated that experts continue to investigate whether the MenB strain involved in this outbreak has become more transmissible. Typically, meningitis cases occur at a rate of about one new case per day.
“We’ve been working around the clock since the discovery of this outbreak to try and understand more about it, including doing DNA sequencing, genome sequencing for this strain. That analysis is extremely complex. The genome for this bacteria is about 100 times bigger than Covid so it’s a lot more complicated.
So it will take us some time to analyse that, but we are very much focusing our attention on whether anything has changed in the bacteria that might make it more likely to spread or cause disease.”
UKHSA reported that initial genetic analysis indicates the Bexsero vaccine currently offered in Kent should provide protection against the MenB strain involved in the outbreak. The agency explained that the strain belongs to group B meningococci, sequence type 485, which is part of the larger clonal complex ST-41/44. Similar strains have been circulating in the UK for approximately five years, but detailed analysis of the outbreak pathogen is ongoing.
Family Campaigns Following Tragic Loss
The outbreak has had a profound impact on families affected by the disease. Juliette Kenny died on 14 March, just one day after developing symptoms including vomiting and discoloration in her cheeks, according to her father, Michael Kenny.
“No family should experience this pain and tragedy,”he said, expressing a desire for his daughter’s legacy to be
“lasting change”.The family is now campaigning for routine access to the meningitis B vaccination for teenagers and young people.
Concerns About Future Outbreaks
When asked about the possibility of similar outbreaks occurring again, Prof May acknowledged the concern.
“Well obviously, that’s something we’re very conscious of.”
He added,
“We’ll be mindful both of the possibility of this particular strain, for example, re-emerging in the future, but also general principles that we’ll learn about the bacteria. As with all pathogens, there’s always much more we can learn, and by learning more about how they work, we hope to develop better ways to prevent them causing disease in the future.”
Expert Opinions on Outbreak Status
Paul Hunter, professor of medicine at Norwich Medical School, University of East Anglia, commented on the outbreak’s progression. Considering the incubation period of up to 10 days, he suggested that the peak from the initial super-spreading event has likely passed, though secondary cases could still occur among those who did not attend the nightclub but contracted the infection from others.
Dr Michael Head, senior research fellow in global health at the University of Southampton, noted the extensive contact tracing and public health efforts, stating,
“Given the extent of contact tracing from public health teams, and the widespread publicity, it is plausible that we are seeing the tail end of this outbreak.
The strain appears to have good coverage from the MenB vaccination, so this is also reassuring.”
Brendan Wren, professor of microbial pathogenesis at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), said the genetic analysis suggests the strain has not mutated into a more invasive form, though he emphasized that a full genome sequence study is necessary to confirm this definitively.
