Homes at Risk from Climate-Driven Subsidence
Millions of homes face the threat of climate-related subsidence, reveals an analysis conducted by the British Geological Survey (BGS).
As droughts driven by global warming become increasingly frequent, the soil beneath houses can contract, causing foundations to shift and potentially damaging properties. The regions most vulnerable include London, Essex, Kent, and a stretch of land extending from Oxford to the Wash along England’s east coast. Scientists emphasize the necessity for mitigation strategies to address this growing risk.
Identifying Vulnerable Areas
Anna Harrison, a scientist at the BGS, explained the methodology behind the analysis:
“By combining geotechnical information about volume change potential with data about projected rainfall and temperature scenarios for the coming century, we have been able to identify the areas of Great Britain most likely to become susceptible to shrink-swell subsidence.
Most are in the area and that’s also where you’re going to see bigger changes in rainfall and temperature. It’s a double whammy.”
London’s higher density of buildings further exacerbates the issue. Harrison added:
“These properties might have foundations that currently can withstand the changes in moisture, but you might find in future there’s going to be more movement. It’s probably going to get worse.”
Impact of Subsidence on Properties
Subsidence can significantly reduce property values, and lenders often refuse mortgages until the problem is resolved. Common signs include diagonal cracks around window and door frames and sloping floors. Addressing subsidence may require engineering interventions such as stabilizing the ground or underpinning foundations. In some cases, utility pipes must be replaced and trees or vegetation removed to prevent further damage.
Recent Climate Trends and Future Projections
In 2025, the UK experienced its warmest spring on record and the driest in over 50 years. The year also saw numerous drought events. With climate projections indicating that hotter and drier conditions will become more frequent throughout the century, the number of properties vulnerable to shrink-swell subsidence is expected to rise.
The dataset forecasts that by 2070, approximately 500,000 properties could be affected under a low emissions scenario aligned with the Paris Agreement. This figure increases to over 1.8 million properties under a medium emissions scenario, which aligns more closely with current global emissions trajectories.
Highly populated areas of London, including Camden, Islington, and Barnet, are among the most susceptible, along with Kent in southeast England. Under the medium emissions scenario, more than 26% of properties in London could be affected by 2070.
Looking Ahead
Harrison emphasized the role of changing weather patterns:
“Dry weather and high temperatures are a major factor in the emergence of shrink-swell subsidence. Looking ahead, these increases in hotter, drier summers and warmer, wetter winters are projected to continue.”
