Potential El Niño Could Elevate Global Temperatures in 2027
Weather agencies and climate scientists have indicated the possibility of an El Niño event developing in the Pacific Ocean later this year. This phenomenon could contribute to global temperatures reaching unprecedented highs in 2027.
Both the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology have reported that some climate models forecast an El Niño. However, both organizations emphasize that these projections carry uncertainties.
Experts consulted by noted that it is premature to be certain, but observed signals in the distribution of sea surface temperatures across the Pacific suggest a potential El Niño formation in 2026.
Understanding ENSO and Its Global Impact
The cycle of ocean temperatures in the Pacific, known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), is associated with extreme climate events worldwide.
When warmer-than-average waters accumulate in the eastern equatorial Pacific and extend to the coast of the American continent, this condition is termed an El Niño. It typically results in a rise in global temperatures and is linked to drier, hotter conditions in Australia.
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology’s ENSO outlook stated this week:
“Some models suggest the possibility of El Niño development from June.”
The bureau also cautioned that this represents a “very long lead time” for predicting an El Niño.
Similarly, NOAA has indicated that “there are growing chances of El Niño” but also highlighted uncertainties in the models.
Expert Insights on El Niño Prospects
Dr Andrew Watkins, a climate scientist at Monash University and former head of long-range forecasts at the Australian bureau, explained:
“We have a lot of warm water stored up in the western tropical Pacific. Typically when the trade winds ease that will slosh back to the east and warm up the areas off South America.
“The models are going for that to happen over [the Australian] autumn, which is fairly much what you’d expect.”
He added that while the “precursors are there” for an El Niño, it remains too early to confirm its development.
Associate Professor Andrea Taschetto, an ENSO expert at the University of New South Wales, noted that the current La Niña phase—characterized by warmer waters near Australia—is ending, making forecasting beyond this period challenging.
She stated the chances of El Niño developing, or ENSO being neutral, between June and August are approximately 50/50, describing it as “like tossing a coin.”
Recent Temperature Trends and Future Projections
The last three years rank among the top three warmest years on record globally.
Dr Zeke Hausfather, a research scientist at the US-based independent Berkeley Earth group, indicated that an El Niño event forming in mid-2023 and persisting until about April 2024 likely contributed approximately 0.12°C to global temperatures in 2024.
“If El Niño develops later this year it will likely peak around November-January and primarily impact 2027 global surface temperatures, rather than 2026.
“This is why I have predicted that 2027 will likely set a new record [for global temperature] if a moderate to strong El Niño event ends up developing.”
Dr Watkins concurred that an El Niño would have a more pronounced effect on global temperatures in 2027.
“I would be hesitant to bet against a hottest year on record,” he said.
He further emphasized that global warming, driven predominantly by fossil fuel emissions, is now “so strong” that it is “simply overtaking year-to-year variability in terms of air temperature.”
“I don’t think we are surprised by anything any more,” he said. “You might not need a strong El Niño to get these warmer temperatures.”
