Historic Harvests Amid Rising Global Coffee Prices
Mary Luz Pérez Arrubla and her brother, Rodrigo, are fourth-generation coffee farmers working on steep Andean slopes near the town of Líbano, in the fertile agricultural region of Tolima, Colombia. Their family, along with many others in the region, experienced a historic coffee harvest during a period of surging global coffee prices, which are expected to remain high for the second consecutive year in 2025.
The price surge was influenced by trade restrictions imposed on key coffee producers such as Brazil and Vietnam, the world’s largest exporters, as well as poor harvests in those countries. Both Brazil and Vietnam were affected by La Niña, a cyclical weather pattern characterized by dry spells and worsened by the climate crisis.
These same climatic conditions benefited many of Colombia’s high-altitude coffee-growing areas, suggesting a potential boom year. However, a portion of the coffee crop was left unharvested and rotted on the ground, highlighting challenges faced by Colombia’s coffee industry. The sector is at a crossroads, grappling with increasingly unpredictable seasons, labor shortages, and rural depopulation.
Climate Change and Its Impact on Colombian Coffee
Colombian coffee production is not immune to the effects of climate change. Since the 1980s, average mountain temperatures have risen, and the number of sunlight hours has changed. Farmers attribute these shifts to the ongoing climate crisis.
Research indicates that between 2041 and 2060, coffee yields are projected to decline in lower-altitude areas but increase by approximately 16% at higher elevations. This is prompting farmers to relocate coffee cultivation to higher slopes and adjust land use accordingly.
As the climate crisis intensifies, coffee producers across Latin America—from Central America’s steep hillsides to Brazil’s forests and Colombia’s Andean slopes—face existential threats.
Despite global markets projecting an image of abundance, small-scale farmers throughout the region struggle with rising costs, unpredictable weather patterns, and a shrinking labor force. Many are questioning the long-term viability of coffee farming.
The climate crisis exacerbates these challenges by increasing temperatures in key coffee-growing regions. A recent analysis by Climate Central found that the world’s five largest coffee producers—Brazil, Vietnam, Colombia, Ethiopia, and Indonesia—now experience an average of 57 additional days per year with damaging heat.
This issue is widespread across Latin America, home to major producers including Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, Honduras, Guatemala, and Peru, which collectively account for over half of global coffee output. Brazil, the largest producer, now endures 70 more hot days annually.
“High temperatures place coffee plants under stress, reducing much of their productive potential. This is affecting coffee plantations around the world, as most are located within the same latitudes,”
explained Celso Vegro, an agronomist and researcher at São Paulo’s state agriculture agency.
Vegro noted that since 2021, global coffee production has fallen short of expectations. Countries have struggled to meet growing demand, leading to depletion of global stocks and driving prices upward. He added,
“This year, Brazil’s harvest is expected to be large and to replenish supplies. But it will be only a temporary reprieve, as the same climate conditions persist.”
Challenges Faced by Colombian Coffee Producers
In a new series titled Coffee crisis, interviewed coffee producers from four Latin American countries to explore the difficulties they face.
Although Colombian producers are striving to adapt to an increasingly unstable climate and market, innovation remains largely inaccessible to most.
The search for coffee pickers has become desperate. While no nationwide data exists on how much of the 2025 first harvest was left unpicked, reports of labor shortages are widespread.
The Pérez Arrubla family reported losing 10% of their harvest due to a lack of workers. Mary Luz Pérez Arrubla said,
“We could not stop. All week, every week, for two-and-a-half months, we picked coffee. I had to gather the coffee from the ground. It seemed that there was more of it lying on the floor than still on the branches.”
Over the past generation, the number of people employed in Colombia’s coffee industry has decreased by 25%, while the proportion of workers over 60 years old has more than doubled, according to the national coffee federation.
Decades of conflict have displaced millions of Colombians, who fled waves of violence involving guerrilla groups, paramilitaries, drug cartels, and state forces. Even in areas less affected by displacement, young people continue to migrate to cities, driven by a wage gap that has traditionally favored urban employment.
“It’s brutal,”said Wilder Gomez, the Pérez Arrubla family’s farm manager, showing his callused and scarred hands from years of coffee picking.
“It’s hard to find people.”
During the peak harvest season, Gomez starts his day at 6am in Líbano’s town square, attempting to hire 10 to 20 workers when 30 are needed. Those he does hire often do not stay long, moving between farms seeking the best harvest opportunities.
The Pérez Arrubla family has raised wages to attract workers, but this has not fully resolved the issue.
“It isn’t just about the wage,”said Jacqueline Mazza, a professor of labor markets and international development at Johns Hopkins University. She cited access to services, opportunities for growth, formal employment, and job stability as factors drawing coffee pickers to urban areas.
Mechanization and Its Limitations in Colombia
Countries like Brazil have addressed rural labor shortages by using mechanical harvesters that shake ripe coffee cherries from plants. However, Colombia’s mountainous terrain limits mechanization options.
“Brazil’s flat fields and distinct seasons let machines work. But our mountains? Every slope is different,”explained Yinson Javier Díaz, an agronomist and administrator for the growers’ federation in Tolima.
Another challenge with mechanical harvesters is their inability to differentiate between ripe and unripe cherries. The Colombian Andes’ climate causes cherries on the same branch to ripen at different times, making mechanical harvesting inefficient and wasteful.
Other technologies could reduce costs. The growers’ federation has developed eco-friendly mills that use friction to remove mucilage—the sticky pulp surrounding coffee beans—thereby reducing water and labor requirements during processing.
Additionally, AI-powered machines that separate ripe beans from defective ones and drones that apply pesticides precisely are available, potentially replacing teams of up to a dozen workers.
However, few Colombian farmers can afford these innovations. According to Díaz, less than 5% have invested in the new mills, which start at 22 million Colombian pesos (£4,150). AI sorting machines and specialized drones are similarly cost-prohibitive.
Economic Realities for Small Coffee Producers
Despite coffee’s status as one of the world’s most traded commodities, farmers receive a small share of the profits. Global coffee consumption is increasing but remains concentrated, with only a fraction of profits reaching small producers in tropical and subtropical countries such as Colombia, which produces about 70% of the world’s coffee beans.
Most Colombian coffee producers are smallholders. The country’s approximately half a million coffee-growing families own an average of 1.4 hectares (3.5 acres) each. In contrast, Brazil’s average farm size is more than three times larger, with many industrial estates cultivating hundreds or thousands of hectares.
“Colombia could never aspire to [Brazil’s level of mechanisation],”Mazza said.
“And it shouldn’t.”
Experts suggest the solution may lie in targeting niche markets. Díaz explained,
“The strategy is to grow speciality coffees, differentiated by their origin or fermentation process, similar to wines or tequilas.”
By focusing on quality rather than quantity, farmers can achieve higher profits from smaller plots.
The Pérez Arrubla siblings dedicate two hectares of their family farm as a testing ground for exotic coffee blends. Mary Luz Pérez Arrubla described their approach as,
“artisanal, and that makes it more expensive, more valuable, than the bitter coffee grown in Brazil.”
Growing speciality coffee requires less mechanization but carries risks. Exotic varieties often need more care and yield smaller harvests than traditional coffee.
Few farmers know how to connect with brokers who control access to the niche market. While the federation guarantees to purchase beans at a set price, it does not offer premiums for speciality coffees.
“The irony is that speciality coffees, which pay 300 to 400% more, are especially susceptible to roya [coffee leaf rust, a fungal disease]. Many coffee growers fall in love with the price without understanding the risks,”Díaz said.
A national analysis confirmed that climatic events such as those from 2008 to 2011 can sharply increase rust infections. Smallholders, who make up about 80% of producers, face erratic harvests and frequent losses, sometimes exceeding 50% during extreme heat or heavy rain, without corresponding price increases.
Uncertain Future for Colombia’s Coffee Culture
Given ongoing rural depopulation and the inaccessibility of innovation for smallholders who define Colombia’s coffee culture, the sector’s future appears uncertain.
Díaz noted that families with two hectares or less can harvest their own crops but cannot risk cultivating speciality beans. He said the profit from a small harvest of commercial beans will allow them to,
“just barely survive”
while coffee prices remain high.
He added,
“And, if we want to compete with Brazil, we have to turn into them, become industrial. But 560,000 families depend on coffee farming, and industrial farming would only support 2,000 to 3,000 people. That would be a blow to coffee culture.”
Mazza envisions a future for small-scale, specialized coffee production combined with complementary crops and tourism.
However, she emphasized that smallholder Colombian producers cannot build this model alone. They require organization and support,
“because a lot of it is capital-intensive, it requires a strategic investment.”
For the speciality coffee model to succeed, Mazza said Colombia and Latin America must also cultivate domestic demand rather than relying solely on Western markets.
Mary Luz Pérez Arrubla has already observed this shift, with more consumers purchasing speciality coffee instead of the traditional 20p tinto commonly served on street corners.
“There has been a change. Now, people say, ‘Yes, I can spend 5,000 pesos [£1] because I am contributing to a coffee farmer, helping him survive.’”
