Generations of Farming Under Pressure
Rodney Bushmeyer has been farming for as long as he can remember, continuing a family tradition that spans over a century. Bushmeyer Farms in Illinois was established more than 100 years ago by his ancestors, who immigrated from Germany, acquired 80 acres as homesteaders, cleared the land, and cultivated it.
Now 69, Bushmeyer rises early to witness the sunrise on his way to work. His farm is currently planting wheat, with soy and corn to follow in the coming weeks. In about a month, the farm will "be greening up," showcasing a vibrant landscape.
However, Bushmeyer and his family, who operate the farm alongside his son and cousin, have faced significant challenges due to sharply increased fertilizer costs over the past five to six years. While some fertilizers have doubled in price, grain commodity prices have declined.
"There is really no profit right now," Bushmeyer said. He added, "It's not sustainable in the long term. We can do that for a few years, but eventually it'll put us out of business."
Although Bushmeyer’s struggle with fertilizer expenses began years ago, many US farmers are now experiencing intensified pressure as fertilizer prices have surged in recent weeks.
American farmers have become indirect victims of the US-Israel conflict with Iran. Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for fertilizer production and transportation, has disrupted supply chains. Attempts to reopen this vital trade corridor have so far been unsuccessful.
This closure has exacerbated difficulties for farmers during the US spring planting season, compounding years of financial losses in crop production.
"It's not a great time for the grower," said Matt Bennett, CEO of AgMarket, a brokerage and farmer consulting firm. Bennett, a seventh-generation grain farmer from Shelby County, Illinois, emphasized the challenges faced by producers.
The Middle East plays a crucial role in the global fertilizer market, with 35% of global urea trade passing through the region. Urea is a solid nitrogen fertilizer. Additionally, about 20% of phosphate trade originates from Saudi Arabia, according to Chris Yearsley, CEO and head of nitrogen at Profercy, a global fertilizer pricing, analysis, and forecasting firm.
The United States imports approximately 25% of its total fertilizer consumption, including 18% of its nitrogen supply, according to the USDA.
Fertilizer prices have been elevated since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine war, with nitrogen prices already rising in late 2025. Since the closure of the shipping channel, prices have nearly doubled.
Benchmark nitrogen prices in New Orleans were $350 per short ton in late December. By late February, just before the conflict escalated, prices had risen to $470. As of 10 March, nitrogen prices were trading around $600 per short ton, Yearsley reported.
Fertilizer represents the most volatile and significant non-land expense for most farmers. For corn, the largest US crop, fertilizer can account for a substantial portion of total production costs, according to the USDA.
Farmers have been contending with costs exceeding their crop sale prices for at least three years. The USDA had forecasted another year of reduced profits even before the recent fertilizer price surge.
"With crop economics as bad as they are right now, it doesn't take much to destroy (a farmer's) income statement," said Philip Coffin, an independent grain industry analyst.
In 2025, federal subsidies, including USDA payments to farmers affected by tariffs imposed during the Trump administration, prevented producers from incurring losses.
Gregg Ibendahl, associate professor at Kansas State University, described these payments as a lifeline.
"They turned a really bad year into at least a mediocre year," he said.
Farmers Face Market Consolidation and Rising Costs
Lance Lillibridge farms approximately 1,250 acres of corn in east-central Iowa. Having grown up on a farm, he is familiar with the economic pressures affecting agriculture.
During his high school years, Lillibridge witnessed the 1980s farm crisis. An agriculture teacher once advised him,
"You might as well find something else to do, Mr. Lillibridge, because you'll never make it in farming,"he recalled.
After high school, Lillibridge worked in a factory for five years, a period he described as unpleasant. He returned to farming in the 1990s and started a trucking business, which facilitated his return to full-time farming.
Lillibridge purchased land just before the ethanol-driven agricultural boom and transitioned to farming full-time. However, he noted that this boom coincided with consolidation in agricultural sectors such as meatpacking, fertilizer, and seed production.
"The fertilizer industry is probably the most concentrated industry in the entire world, and they are able to manipulate markets. They have market power, and there's not a damn thing that we can do about it right now, other than hope and pray that our Department of Justice comes down on them," he said.
Lillibridge has already purchased fertilizer for the upcoming season but warned that sustained high prices will be unsustainable.
"We won't be able to buy the fertilizer," he said. "Lenders won't want to help farmers with credit. Banks are already cutting guys and saying, 'Yeah, sorry, we can't finance that. There's not a return on investment. We can't do it.'"
The potential consequences are severe. Distressed farmers may sell their land, but buyers will face the same high fertilizer costs. Alternatively, farmers might reduce fertilizer use, which would lower crop yields and increase food prices.
"That will reduce crop yields and that, in turn, is going to make everything much more expensive," he said. "For you, me, everybody else, your cost at the grocery store is going to go up."
Without effective measures to address fertilizer costs, the outlook remains bleak.
"My farm is probably going to be OK for another couple [of] years, but something has to change, or I'm going to be at the point where I don't want to do it."
He added,
"I've got a 19-year-old son. This is what he wants to do,"referring to farming.
"And I just don't know if it's going to be a good thing for him to do."
Planting Decisions and Crop Shifts
High fertilizer prices may influence planting choices this spring. The USDA is conducting a survey of farmers’ planting intentions, with results expected on 31 March. This report is a key indicator for the upcoming growing season and often causes futures market fluctuations if the data is unexpected.
In February, the USDA’s estimate forecasted a 4 million-acre shift from corn to soybeans. While crop rotation between corn and soybeans is common for agronomic reasons, soybeans may gain more acreage in 2026 due to their lower fertilizer requirements, making them less costly to cultivate.
Some farmers are hopeful that new government biofuels policies will increase soybean demand, partially offsetting lost export markets.
Bennett plans to maintain his traditional corn and soybean rotation and associated field preparation. However, he has spoken with farmers who delayed fall fertilizer application in hopes of lower prices.
"That's where the growers are kind of hamstrung right now," he said.
Farmers who applied fertilizer in the fall, typically those growing corn, face sunk costs and must also apply additional nutrients in spring, exposing them to the same high prices as others finalizing planting plans.
Coffin noted that the rapid price increase likely prevented farmers from securing fertilizer before costs rose. Now, they must decide what to plant and how much fertilizer to use during the growing season, with reduced nutrient application potentially lowering yields and income.
Even farmers who purchased fertilizer earlier may face delays. Fertilizer shipments from the Middle East can take up to two months to reach northern US farms.
"There's a fair amount of fertilizer in the US already, but what’s unknown is how much is floating in the Red Sea awaiting shipment to the US for spring planting needs," Coffin said.
"That's the really critical part here. How much of the fertilizer that’s bought and ordered for shipment – how much of that will get hung up in this conflict here?"
Modern Farming and Economic Strain
Angela Guentzel, a sixth-generation farmer whose family farm is located at the northern edge of the corn belt, benefits from modern farming technology that allows precise and efficient fertilizer use. She purchased fertilizer this past fall before the recent price surge.
Guentzel expressed concern that if fertilizer prices remain high into the fall, economic pressures will intensify.
"Cuts are going to have to be made, just between the depressed price of what we can sell our crop for, and increased prices for everything that will have for inputs," she said. Guentzel serves on the board of the Minnesota Corn Growers Association.
"It's a double-edged sword," she added. "Putting inappropriate amounts of fertilizer is kind of basically just not an option, because if you have less fertilizer, then you're going to have less yield."
Guentzel highlighted that the crisis extends beyond farmers themselves.
"Food security is basically national security," she said. "Everything on the table starts with a farmer and seed in the ground. And fertilizer isn't really an optional thing."
"If we can't afford to put a crop in the ground, we then become more dependent on foreign nations to feed our own people."
Political and Economic Implications
It remains uncertain whether relief is forthcoming for farmers facing high fertilizer prices. Continued increases could have political ramifications.
"Farmers are the backbone of America, and when they're squeezed by rising costs like fertilizer, it carries real political weight," said Brittany Martinez, a Republican strategist and executive director of Principles First. "Many of these voters have historically supported Republicans, but if they feel the Trump administration isn't delivering on economic promises, that frustration could negatively impact Republicans on election day."
"To earn their support, both parties need to focus on practical relief – lowering input costs, stabilizing supply chains, and actually showing up for rural communities with solutions, not rhetoric," Martinez added.
Meanwhile, farmers continue to confront severe economic challenges caused by fertilizer prices and difficult commodity markets.
"It's out of our control," Bushmeyer said.
Despite the difficulties, Bushmeyer remains hopeful.
"My dad used to say, we're at the mercy of the weather and the government, and we can't control either," he said. "When you grow up in this business, you just take whatever comes and you raise the best crop you can and rest is up to God and mother nature."
"We have to be optimistic or we would never raise a crop, never try."
