RBA chief cautions on Iran market moves
The Reserve Bank governor has stated it is "too early to tell" what the recent US-Israel attacks on Iran will mean for inflation and interest rates.
Financial markets and many economists anticipate a second rate hike by the RBA in May. However, Michele Bullock noted that "events in the Middle East are a timely reminder that in this world of geopolitical uncertainty, things can change quickly".
Oil prices surged following missile strikes that resulted in the death of Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, and the effective closure of a key adjacent waterway affecting shipping.
While consumers may face higher fuel costs, Bullock emphasized the complexity of the economic and inflationary consequences.
"It’s too early to say what the impact will be, events are moving rapidly and there are different ways this can play out. The staff will take some time to make sense of what it could mean for inflation here. A supply shock could, for example, add to inflation pressures. And the potential implications for inflation expectations are something we are very alert to. But at the same time, a prolonged impact on energy markets could have adverse effects on global economic activity and result in downward pressure on inflation. It is not obvious how this might play out. So as much as I know the public would like more certainty about the direction of interest rates, it would be wrong for us to pretend to have greater certainty than we do."
Bullock also indicated that a rate hike in March remains a "live" possibility, with the board actively considering whether it needs to act more quickly.
"I’m not making a prediction about March, but it will be a live meeting. We have inflation at 3.8% headline, and we have unemployment at 4.1 – tight. The board will be actively looking at whether or not it needs to move more quickly. So I would discourage people from thinking that we necessarily only meet every quarter."
She further noted that a prolonged rise in energy prices due to Middle East conflict will impact economies globally, though financial markets have reacted "orderly" so far.
Speaking at the AFR’s business summit, Bullock remarked that while the central bank usually looks past temporary price shocks, the current situation may be more challenging.
"This one might be a little bit harder, because, as you say, we already have elevated inflation, and I think there is a risk that inflation expectations might become a little bit unanchored."
Trump an ‘apex opportunist’, says Hastie
Andrew Hastie, recently appointed shadow sovereign capability minister, described former US President Donald Trump’s strategy as an attempt to reassert deterrence with the US military, which he called the "apex military".
Speaking to , Hastie highlighted China’s discounted purchases of Iranian crude oil and suggested the US is leveraging the Middle East conflict to counter China’s influence.
"I think the larger play here from the United States is to, I think, to reorder the state of world affairs at the moment, and to compete with China, and by knocking out Iran, potentially, they’re knocking out a really critical partner, a very cheap supply of oil for their industrial base. Donald Trump is an apex opportunist. So he hit Nigeria, he’s hit Venezuela. They’ve gone into Iran, or at least they’ve struck Iran. I think part of the plan here is also to re-establish deterrence, and the US military is the apex military."
Hastie, who served in the Australian Defence Force from 2003 to 2015, described Trump’s four- to five-week timeline for action in Iran as "optimistic".
"I think it’s a very optimistic timeline. And reminded me a little bit of the mission accomplished stuff back in 2003. Four to five weeks is a very short period of time. We’re talking about a regime change here, and the war is escalating throughout the Middle East."
Queensland government to water down hate speech legislation
Queensland’s government plans to dilute its hate speech legislation, which was developed following last year’s Bondi terrorist attack.
The state’s Labor opposition has announced it will oppose certain clauses of the bill but will support it in the final vote.
The Liberal National party spent several weeks drafting the legislation, which also addresses national calls for gun reform. The bill was released three weeks ago and underwent a brief parliamentary committee process with only seven days for public submissions.
Originally, the laws would have empowered the state attorney general to proscribe specific expressions, making their utterance or publication punishable by up to two years in prison. However, the government will remove this power.
The revised bill will explicitly ban two expressions, "from the river to the sea" and "globalise the intifada", without allowing the attorney general to add further phrases. The first slogan is commonly used by pro-Palestinian activists.
Labor leader Steven Miles criticized the unamended bill, stating it would "criminalise speech and hand extreme and unchecked powers to the attorney general".
"The laws as drafted will take Queensland backwards, backwards to a place, backwards to a time where police were sent with batons to arrest young people protesting peacefully. These laws give the government of the day extreme and unchecked powers, powers to outlaw any speech that they don’t like."
Paterson justifies not supporting Hanson censure
On RN Breakfast, James Paterson explained why the Coalition did not support a government motion to censure Pauline Hanson in the Senate.
The Coalition supported other elements of the motion endorsing multiculturalism and condemning vilification, but opposed the censure itself. Two Liberal backbench senators, Paul Scarr and Andrew McLachlan, crossed the floor to support the government.
Paterson acknowledged Hanson’s comments about Muslim Australians were condemnable but stated that censures are "usually reserved for the worst conduct".
"We voted for every element of that motion instead of the censure, and we moved an amendment which suggested that senator Hanson should be condemned rather than censured for her comments. We have previously voted to censure senator Hanson. Censuring someone in the Senate is usually reserved for the worst conduct and particularly relates to their behaviour as a senator in the Senate or as a minister represented in the Senate. We don’t think it should be routinely used just to condemn people for making statements that we may profoundly disagree with as we do in this instance."
Last year, both Lidia Thorpe and Ralph Babet were censured in November — Thorpe for protesting against King Charles and Babet for offensive tweets following Trump’s election victory.
Paterson says mosques mourning ayatollah could be in breach of new laws
Following Matt Thistlethwaite’s comments, James Paterson spoke on RN Breakfast condemning several mosques and Islamic centres mourning the death of the ayatollah.
Paterson, newly appointed shadow defence minister in Angus Taylor’s frontbench reshuffle, suggested these events might breach new antisemitism and hate laws enacted after the Bondi terror attack.
He called for federal police investigations into whether the mourning events violate the law.
"Firstly, they’re just not appropriate. No one should be holding a mourning for the head of a regime which sponsored terror attacks in Australia. But secondly, the IRGC, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, of which the Ayatollah is the spiritual leader and head, is now a listed terrorist organisation in Australia. And it is a crime to praise or glorify a listed terrorist organisation in a way that could incite others to commit acts of terrorism. It’s also a crime to display the symbols and logos of a listed terrorist organisation."
Thistlethwaite ‘not aware’ of any advice sought on legality of strikes
The government has avoided answering questions about the legality of the US and Israeli strikes on Iran, stating that this is a matter for the two countries involved.
RN Breakfast host Sally Sara asked whether the government had sought advice on the legality of the strikes. Thistlethwaite responded that he was "not aware" of any such advice being sought.
When pressed, Thistlethwaite said the government supports upholding international law but bases decisions on what it believes serves Australia and the international community best.
"We work with other middle power nations to ensure that we have consistent positions. And when you look at the approach that Canada and the United Kingdom, countries that we’ve worked closely with on the conflict in this region, they have a similar position to Australia. Australia is not an outlier in this and the approach that we have taken."
Labor says it did warn travellers about possible airspace shutdown
Assistant Foreign Affairs Minister Matt Thistlethwaite defended Labor against criticism from Shadow Defence Minister James Paterson, who questioned whether the government adequately warned Australians before the Middle East conflict escalated.
Thistlethwaite noted that the government issued 41 travel advice updates since the start of the year and continually worked to provide the best intelligence and advice.
"There have been 41 travel advice updates that the Australian government has issued for the region and 26 social media posts. On 15 January, the foreign minister gave a media conference where she warned that the airspace could close in the coming weeks in the region. And on 19 February, we updated the travel warnings once again, telling people to issue a very high degree of caution if you’re looking to go to the area. Again, the assistant minister tells Australians to register with Smartraveller."
"Hopefully the airspace will progressively begin to open over the coming weeks and then we’ll have options to get Australians out. But the reality is the best option will be commercial flights. Don’t cancel your flight. Make sure that you maintain your flight and that you’re in regular contact with your travel agent and your airline about updates."
Government takes conflict ‘a day at a time’
On ABC News Breakfast, Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles said the government is managing the Middle East conflict and its economic consequences on a daily basis.
Marles emphasized the government’s focus on consular support and encouraged Australians in the region to register with Smartraveller.
He and Foreign Affairs Minister Penny Wong highlighted that commercial flights will be the best means for Australians to return once airspace reopens. Marles mentioned contingency plans without providing specifics.
"It sounds trite, but you literally kind of have to take this at a day at a time. It is very difficult to speculate about how long this will go. You are right that there could easily be an economic dimension to this, and it is a function of how long it goes. And we’re, again, we’re very mindful of that and looking at what the potential economic impacts will be."
Regarding the memorials for the ayatollah, Marles declined to direct police on any action against mosques and Islamic centres in Melbourne and Sydney that held mourning events.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese previously described these events as "inappropriate".
"I’m not about to suggest what the police should do, that’s that’s a matter for them. But let me say this, our our thoughts are not with the supreme leader. Our thoughts are with the thousands of Iranians who have died at the hands of the supreme leader just in the last few weeks, without looking at the countless numbers of Iranians who have lost their lives over the nearly 40 years that the supreme leader has been at the helm of the Iranian state."
Marles defends reports of 24-hour wait to reach consular staff
Marles addressed reports of Australians in the Middle East experiencing up to 24-hour waits to contact consular staff amid evacuation planning.
He noted there are over 115,000 Australians in the region, with approximately 11,000 travelling between Australia and the Middle East daily, creating a significant workload for consular services.
The government is monitoring limited airspace openings and considering contingency options.
"There are a significant number of Australians there, we’re obviously working through all of this as quickly as possible. We are posting advice on Smartraveller as soon as it comes to hand, and we are very much encouraging people to monitor that very closely. There’s been some reports of marginal airspace being opened up in a limited way, but really that’s the issue that we’re monitoring closely. We are going through some contingency arrangements right now, which I won’t speak about publicly … but for most people, the most expeditious way in which they will be able to leave is going to be through commercial flights as soon as [they open]."
Australia not asked to participate in Iran action: Marles
Defence Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles stated that Australia has not been asked to participate in military actions against Iran.
Speaking on the Today Show, Marles declined to speculate on the duration of the conflict.
"I think it’s hard to speculate exactly how long this will go. Obviously, we are monitoring this very closely, but we’ve not been asked to participate. This is an action which is being undertaken by the United States and by Israel."
When questioned about the legality of the strikes, Marles avoided direct answers, instead emphasizing the illegality of Iran seeking nuclear weapons.
"I mean, what is unlawful is for Iran to be seeking to acquire a nuclear weapon capability. I mean, that flies in the face of the non-proliferation treaty and the international regime."
Men almost twice as likely as women to earn high salaries, new report
Men are nearly twice as likely as women to earn $220,000 annually, with minimal progress made in closing Australia’s gender pay gap over the past year.
The federal government’s Workplace Gender Equality Agency (WGEA) released its gender pay gap data for 10,500 employers on Tuesday. It showed a slight increase in women occupying highly paid roles, but men remain 1.8 times more likely to be in the top quartile of earners, averaging $221,000.
Conversely, women are 1.4 times more likely than men to be in the lowest quartile of earners, with an average salary of approximately $60,000 annually.
Canadian PM Mark Carney to address federal parliament during three-day visit
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney arrives in Australia today for a three-day official visit, which will include a rare address to federal parliament.
Carney is scheduled to visit Sydney and Canberra and hold talks with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. This will mark their ninth meeting.
Discussions will cover critical minerals, climate change, economic security, prosperity, and defence cooperation. Canada and Australia have previously signed a joint declaration of intent on critical minerals, which may be upgraded during this visit.
Carney and Albanese are also expected to discuss the escalating conflict in Iran, triggered by recent US and Israeli bombings. Carney has advocated for middle powers like Canada and Australia to act collectively, as highlighted in his recent World Economic Forum address in Davos.
Carney’s visit will also include an event at the Lowy Institute think tank.
Memorials for Ayatollah Ali Khamenei ‘inappropriate’, PM says
Memorials held in Australia for Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s late supreme leader, have been called "inappropriate" by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese.
Khamenei, who led Iran since 1989, was killed in US and Israeli airstrikes over the weekend targeting Iran’s ballistic missile program.
Thousands of Iranian Australians attended memorials on Sunday. The Shia Muslim Council of Australia stated that Iran holds "profound religious significance" for its community.
Speaking on ABC’s 7.30 program, Albanese said Khamenei should not be mourned and that most Australians, including those of Iranian descent, view.
"We in this country have a different approach to people having different views from a totalitarian regime such as Iran, but our position is very clear, and I’m sure that is shared by the overwhelming majority of Australians, including the overwhelming number of Australians of Iranian descent … I don’t think [memorials are] appropriate. And certainly I think ...
